Four weeks to go before the fiscal cliff occurs. I believe that a last second deal will be made to avoid the cliff because both sides are scared of the consequences. Frankly I don't know why people are afraid of this so called cliff. I say bring it on. I think we will survive it and will gain some knowledge of how the economy really works.
The predictions are that if the tax increases and spending cuts occur as scheduled on Jan. 2, 2013, we will lose about 4% of GDP, putting us back into recession. I am no economist so I don't have any idea if these calculations are accurate. But this law was passed so that if the so called super committee can't find a way to reduce the deficit then the tax increases and spending cut to be implemented will reduce our deficit by 1.2 trillion dollars. Now throughout the last few years all I have heard is that we have to reduce the deficit as if not doing so will be the death of our economy. So now with less than a month we are saying that by reducing the deficit we are going to kill our economy? So I say let us go over the cliff. If we go into recession, then I guess reducing the deficit is not the cure all that we heard about in recent years. But if we don't go into recession then may be we will be more brave about cutting more of our deficit in the future.
The extreme right wants to reduce the deficit by cutting spending only. The extreme left wants to cut the deficit by raising taxes only. But most people think that both need to be done. This cliff forces us to do both just as most people want. I think initially the stock market will be spooked. There will also be less spending by consumers. But after a while maybe we will see that we don't need to spend more money on our military as the next ten nations combined. Maybe we see that a little cut on medicare do not lead to deaths to our seniors. Maybe our millionaires will see that losing a few thousand dollars a year in tax should not change their strategy in expanding their businesses. But if the recession lasts longer than I think it will, well, then maybe we won't be so vocal about drastically reducing the deficits next time.