Been taking a break from writing as I felt rather frustrated with the politics in the country and the violence in Hong Kong. Everyday brings more revelations of how unethical and incompetent our president is. I can write something on that everyday but I feel like I would be wasting my energy. The country is so divided that nothing will change anyway. The situation in Hong Kong has gone way longer than I expected and there is no light at the end of the tunnel. This is also an issue that people on either side will not change their minds. So I will not try to change anyone's mind on either situations but after thinking over things in the past month, I will try to predict what will happen.
So the impeachment inquiry has started. For the past couple of weeks, witnesses have been testifying in televised sessions. To me, Trump is worse than Nixon. But it doesn't matter what I think. Trump will be impeached by the Democrat controlled House, but will not be convicted by the Republican controlled Senate. Trump will claim victory. The whole thing will boost turnout for Trump, making it very difficult to beat him. He will lose the popular vote again but all he has to do is defend the states he narrowly won in 2016. If his supporters turn out bigger than his detractors in those states, he will win again.
The latest polls show that only Biden, among the Democrats, beating Trump in those battleground states. Biden has been shaky in the debates so you can never be sure that he will do well in the general election. So unless they come up with a bombshell during the impeachment proceedings, I am afraid that the Democrats are helping Trump win reelection.
Since we all know how China can mow down dissidents (see Tiananmen Square Massacre), it is amazing that they have been hands off in Hong Kong for several months. But I think it is just a matter of a pending trade deal. The Hong Kong police, to me, has been remarkably disciplined given the circumstance. But if China says attack, the protest will be over with big time violence. But Xi will at least wait until Trump signs a trade deal. The deal will include, maybe not in writing but certainly in verbal agreement, that Trump will not protest if China uses force. Trump needs a deal to get out of the quagmire that he got himself into. He does not and will not care what happens to the Hong Kong people. Just ask the Kurds.
Well, there are more depressing news that I have avoided to write about. The tragedy of the Kurds is among them. But I will end with at least a mild uplifting news: Sean Spicer has bee eliminated from DWTS, finally!
