The response to the coronavirus from China is much different than that of the response in 2003 of the SARS epidemic.  I think China has learned its lessons and is much more transparent this time.  They have not try to downplay the danger of the virus as they did last time.  They have also identified the DNA of the virus and share it with other countries so that other countries can respond quickly if their citizens got infected. 

China also has blocked people from Wuhan and other nearby cities from leaving.  This is very drastic given that it is the Chinese New Year where there is great deal of traveling in the country.  They have also started building a hospital, promising to be completed in a week.  Although that deadline is not going to be met, it looks like it will be completed in about 2 weeks.  That is still remarkable.  I don't think in a democratic country, you can block off cities with 20 million people total without a civil fight.  You also won't even get a permit to build a hospital in 2 weeks!

It is hard to say how bad this epidemic is going to end up to be.  But I doubt that there will be thousands of deaths, like how many we get in the U.S. each year from the flu.  Even the SARS epidemic ended with only about 800 deaths.  So maybe we never will blockade a major U.S. city.  But maybe we should mandate flu shots for everyone?  How about childhood vaccines?

Sad news that Kobe Bryant and his daughter died in a helicopter crash today along with 7 others.  One of the greatest player in the history of the NBA, he will be sorely missed in LA and millions of his fans in the world. 

Not a good start for the year of the rat.  Hope things get better as the year goes!

The Houston Astros have been found to have cheated in the 2017 World Series with stealing signs by electronic means.  The penalty?   The general manager and the manager got suspended and subsequently fired from their jobs.  Couple of draft choices and five million dollars (the maximum fine under MLB rules).  No players were penalized.  They still get to keep the trophy and their name in the record book.

I don't think these penalties are enough.  They certainly are not going to deter anyone from cheating in the future.  The Astros were warned before the playoffs that there will be penalties if they cheat.  That means that MLB had at least a good idea that this was going on before it happened.  But that didn't stop them.  Now that they get to keep their World Series trophy and the players get no penalty but get to keep their winnings and rings, why would future players and team not cheat if they have a new method to do so?

If someone is found to have cheated in the Olympics, his medal can be taken away and the others move up in the standing.  I don't think it is feasible to make the Dodgers the 2017 champion but they can vacate the Astros championship.  But MLB doesn't like to do this.  Even after Barry Bonds have been found to have cheated, his records still stand.  So MLB is weaker than the IOC which Americans have criticized a lot in the past.

Alex Cora, who was a coach with the Astros, became manager of the Red Sox and they won the World Series over the Dodgers in 2018.  Cora is being investigated for his Red Sox team now.  Could the Dodgers have been cheated twice in a row?  Maybe they should also investigate the 2019 Nationals!

I say vacate the 2017 World Series Championship.  Take at least three first and second round draft choicesfrom the Astros.  Take away all the World Series winnings of the players on the Astros playoff rosters that season plus 20% of their salaries for that season.  This may have a chance to deter cheating in the future.

The killing of Iranian general Suleimani is sure to escalate the tensions in the Middle East.  Suleimani was an enemy of the U.S. for sure.  But if the justification for killing him now is that he is planning attacks on the U.S. and his killing prevent us from going to war as Trump suggested, it is laughable.  I am sure that Suleimani and others were planning to attack U.S. interests all along.  The fact we kill the top dog in this will not deter anything.  If he had already made plans as was suggested, then surely they will eventually carry out the plans.  And if war has been deterred, then why are we sending more troops into the area?  It is obvious the chance for conflict is now greater, not less as Trump suggested.

This is another blunder on our relationship with Iraq and Iran.  First we helped Saddam Hussein get chemical weapons and used them against Iran.  Then when Hussein attacked Kuwait, we defeated him but did not finish him off.  Then Bush II decided to take his eyes off Afghanistan and invade Iraq with the idea of getting rid of Hussein once for all.  The Iraq war got rid of Hussein but cost our chance of getting rid of the Taliban in Afghanistan.  And the Iraq invasion has had more bad consequences.

Iraq is a Shiite majority country.  So is Iran.  They went to war in the 1980s because Hussein, who was a Sunni, ruled Iraq.  Once you got rid of Hussein, it was easy to predict that Shiites would rule the country.  That means instead of being enemies, Iraq and Iran can be friends.  Is that what the U.S. wanted?  The Iraq leaders are walking a fine line.  On the one hand, with a Shiite majority and a close proximity to Iran, Iraq had to cooperate with Iran.  On the other hand, the government depends on the U.S. for economic aids and military aids against extremists.  So the Iraq leaders do not want to offend either Iran or the U.S.

But with the drone strike that killed Suleimani, some Iraqis were killed also.  This raised anger not only in Iran but in Iraq also.  The Iraqi government could not be seen as allowing the U.S. to do whatever it wants to do in Iraq.  So the relationship between Iraq and the U.S. is sure to deteriorate.  It is likely that Iraq may demand that the U.S. pull out of the country altogether.  Iran's influence in Iraq and the region is sure to to grow.

Pence said that Suleimani and Iran had helped the 9/11 terrorists.  Either he doesn't understand the people of the area or he is just making things up.  Most of the 9/11 terrorists were from Saudi Arabia which is a Sunni nation that is an enemy of Iran.  So the idea that Shiites would help Sunnis is not plausible.  There was no evidence of Iran supporting the 9/11 terrorists.  The Trump administration is saying anything to justify the assassination.  But this would not be the first time that our leaders fail to understand the situation of the region and just blindly use force without an end game plan.

As expected the House passed impeachment vote today.  The Senate will acquit Trump as expected early next year.  So I didn't bother to watch the proceedings today.  But couple of things I caught on tv today that maybe of interest.

There was a Congressman from Georgia who spoke out that Jesus had a more fair trial from Pontius Pilate than Trump got from the House.  First of all, the trial is to be in the Senate and has not begin yet.  I doubt that McConnell will be harder on Trump than Pilate was on Jesus.  This guy said that Pilate gave Jesus a chance to confront his accusers.  Well, Pelosi invited Trump to come to testify.  Trump said he was considering it but ultimately chickened out.  So none of what this guy said makes any sense.

How come no Christian has come out attacking this guy.  He is comparing Trump to Jesus!  I know more than half of Republicans think Trump is greater than Lincoln.  But do Christians really believe that Trump is being persecuted more than Jesus was? 

The other thing I saw was Trump mocking Debbie Dingell, the widow of John Dingell.  He even implied that John was in hell.  John Dingell was the longest serving Congressman in history.  He served 59 years from Michigan.  Trump is low class as always.  But again no Republican has come out admonishing his words. 

I don't know if Dingell is still popular in Michigan.  I think these crass remarks from Trump can be used against him in Michigan.  Maybe it won't change many votes but it is a battle ground state that Trump won by the thinnest of margins.  So a few votes may make the difference.

It is time for the Big Ten football bowl games predictions.  I will put up also the level of confidence I have of each of the predictions.

Michigan State over Wake Forest 75% confident
USC over Iowa  53%
Penn State over Memphis  90%
Ohio State over Clemson 51%
Cal over Illinois  53%
Alabama over Michigan 95%
Auburn over Minnesota  95%
Wisconsin over Oregon 55%
Tennessee over Indiana  60%

So that makes 4-5 for Big Ten.  I think it maybe the first time I predict that they will end up with a losing record.  As you can see there are 4 games that I have practical no confidence about my prediction, they are basically tossups to me.  Unfortunately, I am quite confident that Michigan has no chance against Alabama.  OSU dropped to second really is bad for them since Clemson is a much more difficult draw than Oklahoma would have been.  I think Clemson will probably be the favorite in Las Vegas although I was very impressed with OSU the two games I saw them play, against Michigan and Penn State.

The Democrats put out a 300 page report regarding the impeachment while the GOP put out over 100 pages to rebuff the Democrats even before the report came out.  Neither is going to change anyone's mind.  A poll from the Economist showed that 53% of Republicans think that Trump is a better president than Lincoln.  Probably 100% of Democrats think that Lincoln is better than Trump even though Lincoln has been dead for more than one and a half century!   It is impossible to argue with someone who believes the president who freed the slaves and defeated the confederates was inferior to Trump as president.  Apparently there are many people who are for the breaking up of the union and continuing slavery in this country!

On the Democrat side, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been criticizing Mayor Pete for saying that while he is for free college tuition, it should not apply to children of rich people.  AOC has also criticized Yang for saying he is for Medicare for all but would allow people who want to keep their current insurance to do so.  I understand the argument that if free tuition and health insurance is not for everyone then the Republicans will attack it, just like food stamps and welfare.  But they are going to attack it anyway as socialist no matter what.  Pete and Yang are right that the way the left presents these entitlements, they will not pass.  They can only hurt the chances of the Democrats defeating Trump next year.

As the most recent polls show, the lefts' candidates, Warren and Sanders, are not beating Trump in the battleground states.  The Democrats need to nominate a centrist candidate.  If Biden falters, Pete maybe viable.  The Democrats cannot put whoever is nominated in a position where he or she has to lean so far to the left that he or she cannot win those battleground states.

Been taking a break from writing as I felt rather frustrated with the politics in the country and the violence in Hong Kong.  Everyday brings more revelations of how unethical and incompetent our president is.  I can write something on that everyday but I feel like I would be wasting my energy.  The country is so divided that nothing will change anyway.  The situation in Hong Kong has gone way longer than I expected and there is no light at the end of the tunnel.  This is also an issue that people on either side will not change their minds.  So I will not try to change anyone's mind on either situations but after thinking over things in the past month, I will try to predict what will happen.

So the impeachment inquiry has started.  For the past couple of weeks, witnesses have been testifying in televised sessions.  To me, Trump is worse than Nixon.  But it doesn't matter what I think.  Trump will be impeached by the Democrat controlled House, but will not be convicted by the Republican controlled Senate.  Trump will claim victory.  The whole thing will boost turnout for Trump, making it very difficult to beat him.  He will lose the popular vote again but all he has to do is defend the states he narrowly won in 2016.  If his supporters turn out bigger than his detractors in those states, he will win again.

The latest polls show that only Biden, among the Democrats, beating Trump in those battleground states.  Biden has been shaky in the debates so you can never be sure that he will do well in the general election.  So unless they come up with a bombshell during the impeachment proceedings, I am afraid that the Democrats are helping Trump win reelection.

Since we all know how China can mow down dissidents (see Tiananmen Square Massacre), it is amazing that they have been hands off in Hong Kong for several months.  But I think it is just a matter of a pending trade deal.  The Hong Kong police, to me, has been remarkably disciplined given the circumstance.  But if China says attack, the protest will be over with big time violence.  But Xi will at least wait until Trump signs a trade deal.  The deal will include, maybe not in writing but certainly in verbal agreement, that Trump will not protest if China uses force.  Trump needs a deal to get out of the quagmire that he got himself into.  He does not and will not care what happens to the Hong Kong people.  Just ask the Kurds.

Well, there are more depressing news that I have avoided to write about.  The tragedy of the Kurds is among them.  But I will end with at least a mild uplifting news:  Sean Spicer has bee eliminated from DWTS, finally!

Here is my take on the debate last night:  Warren was attacked like she was the front runner.  She did ok in response to the attacks but she did not do as well as she did in the other debates.  It is tough to be the target, just ask Biden.

Sanders was actually better than in the other debates.  I guess heart attack helps!  Actually I think he was having problem with his heart and so was affecting him previously.  Now that he is treated and has better blood flow, he is better!

It was the best debate for Biden but then he was not the main target this time.  He still needs to get better and will see if holds the top spot after this.

I think everybody who has been around has improved.  So despite the worry that the debates cause the Democrats to make each other look bad, I think the debates make everybody better.  The question is will it make the eventual nominee great at debates.

I thought Steyer did all right.  I expected a half crazy billionaire who just talks about impeachment.  But for a political neophyte, he was not bad.

I think Klobuchar and Pete did the best, meaning the moderates are making some inroads against the liberals.  But it is unlikely that they can hold the moderate torch should Biden falters.

So here are my ratings:  Top quarter Klobuchar, Pete, Gabbard.  Second quarter:  Booker, Yang, and Steyer.  Third quarter: Sanders, Warren, Biden.  Last quarter:  O'Rourke, Harris, Castro. 

So the good news is that just about everybody has improved.  The bad news is that the three who are most likely to be nominated are only in the third quarter.  But they are the ones who are being attacked the most, so maybe whoever wins will be able to withstand the attacks of Trump and the GOP.

Came across on YouTube an interview by Shaun Ley of the BBC to Alvin Yeung, the leader of the Civic Party of Hong Kong.  I think it was a balance interview by a respected Western broadcast network.  I would have asked similar questions as Ley did if I was the journalist.

An article in the LA Times today said that there are more people applying to emigrate out of the city.  This is totally expected given the situation there.  What is not expected is that the U.S. is no where near the top of the destinations for Hong Kong people.  If you see the American and British flags being waved during the protests, you would think the people in Hong Kong have great confidence in the U.S.  That apparently is not the case. 

In the past the U.S. have always been the top country the Hong Kong people want to emigrate to.  In the last couple of years, Australia has passed the U.S. and Canada is not far behind.  The survey now reveals that Canada and Australia are the top destinations.  Taiwan and Singapore are also ahead of the U.S.  In fact the U.S. was the top choice in only 2.9% of those survey. 

Keep in mind that those who apply to the U.S. and elsewhere usually have money to invest in the target country or have high education level.  So they are older and richer than most of those protesting.  Still, the anti-immigrant rhetoric from the Trump administration, gun violence in the U.S. and changes in immigration policies all contributed to the decline in the desirability of the U.S.  The people in Hong Kong are very sophisticated in their understanding of the politics of the U.S. and elsewhere.  I am sure they understand more about the Brexit or the abandonment of the Kurds in northern Syria by Trump than most people in the U.S. and U.K.

I think deep down the people in Hong Kong know they can't count on the U.S. or U.K. to rescue them.  The situation in Hong Kong will lead to a brain drain out of the city.  That is bad news for Hong Kong.  It is also bad news for the U.S. that they will not benefit from the transfer of talent as she had in the past.

As promised I am writing an open letter to the president of China after having written an open letter to the protesters in Hong Kong.  Unfortunately since then a protester was shot and in critical condition.  This was predictable and could have been prevented.  As I mentioned before, neither side would likely listen to what I have to say.  But having said my piece to the protesters, I am going to say my piece to the president of China.

Dear President Xi

The display of the celebration of the 70th founding of the PRC was very impressive.  A lot have been accomplished by China during these 70 years.  But most of it has been done since Deng Xiaoping changed the system in China.  I think it is obvious that the old communist system under Mao Zedong was an abject failure.  If China wants to move toward becoming the greatest power on earth, it is essential that the Chinese government continues to open its system toward more democracy and more freedom and do not revert to the past.

President Xi, you said in your speech yesterday that the Chinese people are a great people, the Chinese nation is a great nation and the Chinese civilization is a great civilization.  Well, two out of three ain't bad!  China is not yet a great nation.  Great economic progress have been made but there are still lots of people in poverty.  But worse, are the policies in Xinjiang and Tibet.  I understand your desire to keep the country united.  But by putting so many people in internment camps and jails, you lose credibility all over the world.  I am sure most of the people who are detained are not threats to a great military power like China.  Start releasing some of them, it would be good publicity.

In the matter of Hong Kong, I say you must take the young people seriously.  Listen to their concerns both politically and economically.  Give the Hong Kong people the freedom to vote for their chief executive.  What have you got to lose?  Whoever is voted in cannot declare independence.  Hong Kong depends on China for so many things, it cannot stand alone.  But China also needs Hong Kong for its business know how and connection to the Western world.  If you let them choose their leader, you would have outdone the British over their entire colonial rule of Hong Kong as they never let Hong Kong choose their leader.  Again, it would make China look like a great nation.

President Xi, you have done a great job with the Belt and Road Initiative.  A great use of soft power.  You are right to say that "China used to send people all over the world because it was weak, but we send aid all over the world today because we are strong."  But the policies closer at home make people all over the world question your motives in sending the aid.  By making changes in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong, China can look like a benevolent power that a great nation should be.

During the Ming Dynasty, Admiral Zheng He took the greatest navy the world had known up to that time and for couple centuries after that on seven voyages.  Zheng went south and then west across the Indian Ocean all the way to Africa.  Along the way they were attacked a few times but easily defeated their attackers each time.  Zheng showed off the brilliance of the Chinese civilization and nation.  But unlike the Europeans later, the Chinese did not take any slaves nor did they take treasures from other countries.  Many countries paid tributes to the Chinese emperor after that.

I think it is possible for China to become that great military power again.  But can it be a kind power like it was in the days of Zheng He?  Mr. President, you have the power to point China in that direction.  You can start that by being more kind at home.  I believe your legacy will be enhanced if you change some of your stances regarding Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong.  As you know soft power is much better than hard power in the 21st century. 

AYM