Paul Wolfowitz was on CNN today talking about the situation in Libya. Predictably, he criticized Obama for not being tougher on Kadhafy. This comes from someone of the Bush administration which declared that Khadafy was no longer a terrorist because he had renounced terrorism and would not pursue nuclear weapons. Wolfowitz also wants Obama to stop standing by dictators and be more supportive of democratic movements throughout the region. Of course it is the people on the right which is cautious about the victory for freedom in Egypt, fearing that more radical leadership would emerge in place of Mubarak. Wolfowitz also would not come out and say that we should renounce Saudi Arabia which has the most oil.
I think the revolution will win out in Libya and reforms will be made in Bahrain but I don't think it will spread to Saudi Arabia and Iran at this time. Iran will use force on their own people and will hold out for now. The economic problems that started in Tunisia and Egypt do not apply in Saudi Arabia. Most Egyptians were living on $2 a day, this does not apply to Saudi Arabia. I also think that the Saudis will try to stabilize oil prices because if oil goes out of control, food prices will go up and there will be more instability in the region which the Saudis do not want.
China also do not want instability. I am sure the leadership is watching this closely. There are mild protests right now which the government can control easily. But this is at a time when China has the greatest economic growth of any country in the world in the last decade. They have subsidize food and energy prices to keep the masses happy. If there is an economic collapse, there would be great deal of trouble for the government. When that time comes, how will the U.S. react? What if China decides to sell all the U.S. bonds they hold? So it is time to try to decrease the deficit and also decrease our dependence on oil. Otherwise when the governments of China and Saudi Arabia are in trouble so will we.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
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Well I don't know how anyone in their right mind would want our government to intervene on another country's revolution unless asked by its people. Patience is the key here because you don't want to look like you're invading the country to using your western muscle.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting if the sanctions and freezing of Khadafy's assets will do anything. At this point, the ball is in Khadafy's court and he has multiple options.
The situation in Egypt is still fragile and hopefully it'll be a more democratic society after all is said and done. The smart thing for Obama is to show support for the people in all these countries.
I hope you are right about the Saudis stabilizing the oil prices. The rise in oil and gas causes a ripple effect around the globe. Interesting to see groceries rising in price this past week.
Did you watch the 60 Minutes piece on the former Taiwanese guy who spied for China? Pretty interesting stuff.
-LBOAYM
Food prices were already going up around the world before oil prices went up but it will go much higher now. But you won't see such big increase in China because they can and will subsidize these important commodities or else face real unrest. The Saudis also can afford to pump more oil and stabilize things and it would be to their interest to do so. Not only is Egypt still fragile, the Tunisians are still unhappy. Without improvement in the economy, it would be difficult for any democratic movement to fully succeed. When people feel hopeless about their lives, it would be much easier for radicalism to take hold. So foreign aid at this time would be vital. Except we can't afford it.
ReplyDeleteNo, I did not see 60 Minutes last night. Sounds like a story I seen before but I don't remember much from it. I always think that in this age, spying is more for materialistic gain rather than for ideology. No ideological reason for a Taiwanese to spy for China, right?