Michelle Bachman won the Iowa straw poll today but the big news for the Republicans is that Rick Perry is now officially in. I see Bachman, Perry, Romney and Paul to be still in the race in the next 8 months or so. Everybody else will have dropped out and I don't think Sarah Palin will throw her hat in the ring. If Perry doesn't make any big errors, he will be the choice of the conservatives because they don't think that Palin and Bachman are electable. I like Paul the best among the Republicans but there is no chance for him to be the nominee although he will stay in because of his followers are passionate. So ultimately it will be Romney vs Perry for the nomination at the end.
It is a good possibility that if Perry is a good campaigner, he will beat Romney. I don't think Republicans are sold on Romney. They think he is a flip-flop and will be more liberal if he gets elected. In a general election, I think Romney has a much greater chance to beat Obama than Perry. Let's face it there are certain states, mostly in the south, that if Charles Manson is the Republican nominee he would carry them. So it does not matter if Romney or Perry is the nominee in those states. But Romney is sure to put Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Michigan into play. These were Obama's states that can very well go to Romney but not likely to Perry. Perry will win by a bigger margin in southern states than Romney but that does not matter to the total electoral votes.
So I think the Obama camp is still worrying about Romney the most right now. But I think they are glad that the road to the nomination just got harder for Romney. He will have to lean more right to hold off Perry and that will make him more difficult to win over independents in the general election.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
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Very interesting take you have on the candidates. I was wondering if you thought that Bachman will somehow end up on the ticket at the end as either the nominee or the VP nominee.
ReplyDeleteThere's a certain appeal to her for Tea Party and GOP memebers. In fact, I don't see much difference between her and Palin except for the accent and funny sayings (though she's coming close to her own speeches) and shady husbands.
I almost get the feeling that Palin has been testing the waters and isn't liking what she sees as far as winning the nomination. Plus she needs to start getting campaign money and you would think that the money would have been a lot more had Bachman not run.
I don't know much about Perry. I wish I could compare him and George W but all indications point to Perry being more right wing than W. I have to believe that he will gain momentum since he's the sexy name. I agree with you on Romney, though I think he's hit a wall and needs to redefine himself.
The question then is, is it too late for Romney to change? He's never been very good at defining himself and I think that will hurt him in the long run.
So, it's pointing to a Perry as your GOP nominee and Bachman, who will help Perry with the northern states as the VP nominee.
Would you think that Perry would shock us and have Herman Cain as his running mate to sway some of the black vote?
-LBOAYM
I don't think there is any chance that Palin will get in now. There are already two conservatives in the top 3 and Palin cannot beat both of them. If Pawlenty had beaten Bachman and Perry stayed out then Palin may have gone in with the idea that she can be to the right of Pawlenty and Romney. There is no place for a third conservative in this race now.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Bachman will end up on the ticket. As I said, conservatives like her but don't think she can win a general election. They believe that Perry is a much better candidate even though that remains to be seen. Assuming that Perry wins the nomination, I don't think he would pick Bachman. She is from the north but she is so conservative that I don't think she can carry Minnesota in a general election. She would appeal to the exact same people as Perry and would not help him get more electoral votes. I think Perry would try to get Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey, to be on the ticket. Christie, a darling of the fiscal conservatives, is from a northern state. He will definitely bring New Jersey from the Democratic side to the Republicans and may be valuable in neighboring Pennsylvania as well. He did not want to run for president even though many in the Republican party wanted him to. He probably thinks he is not ready as he is a first term governor. But maybe he would feel ready for a vp role.
By the way, W. and Perry do not get along even though they both got poor grades in college. Perry thinks that w. was born with a silver spoon and Perry himself is from a poor family. W. thinks that Perry is either too conservative or is just pretending. So don't look for endorsement from the Bush family although that is actually good for Perry. The last thing he wants is that people think that he and W. are the same. There are already signs on the campaign trail that state that we don't want another governor from Texas.