More than one month into the war in Ukraine, there are many lessons we should have learned. I don't even know where to begin. Today I will talk about the lessons that can be transferred to the China-Taiwan situation and see how that goes.
Even before Russia started the invasion, there were already people saying that Russia cannot be allowed to succeed or else China will do the same to Taiwan. To me the lesson is that if you are truly worried about war then you should listen to your enemy about the line that you cannot cross. Ukraine was the line NATO cannot cross, according to Russia. So why did NATO keep courting Ukraine? China has said that Taiwan declaring independence is the red line so we definitely cannot encourage Taiwan to cross that line.
There are hawks in the U.S. who want to push Taiwan into declaring independence and draw China into war now before China gets even stronger in the future. That is just insane. There are only a few percent of people in Taiwan who want independence now. Overwhelming majority want the status quo right now. China has no intention to take over Taiwan by force. China is making money in Taiwan and many Taiwanese are making money and living on the Mainland. So war is a lose, lose situation for both sides. So why should the U.S. mettle?
Some pundits said that Russian's invasion of Ukraine should make Taiwan more worried about China and be more on the side of the U.S. than before. Sure, seeing the arms support NATO is giving Ukraine, Taiwan can buy more arms from the U.S. over the objection of China. But Taiwan should also realize that no NATO troops are fighting for Ukraine. If the U.S. and its allies will not send troops to fight for an independent European nation, what makes Taiwan think that they will send troops to an Asian island that they recognize as being part of China? Taiwan should realize that the Americans will not come to save it. The U.S. want to get China into a quagmire and slow its rise. But to encourage Taiwan to declare independence, it means America does not care about the survival of Taiwan at all.
Western media often paint China and Russia as the same. But since China's last "war" against Vietnam in 1979, Russia has fought in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Georgia and now Ukraine. The U.S. has fought in Iraq twice, Afghanistan and Syria among others. We even invaded Grenada, which is no threat to us. Russia claims to be threatened by NATO bases in Poland, Hungary etc. But there are numerous U.S. bases in Japan, Korea and the Philippines near China. American fleets are constantly patrolling near China's coast. But when China builds a few airstrips on uninhabited islands in the Pacific, it is considered a threat to world peace?
Truth is, Russia, China and the U.S. are not military threat to each other. Each can destroy the world with their nuclear weapons. So there is no reason for one to attack the other two. That is why this war in Ukraine is so unnecessary. Even if NATO nuclear missiles are in Ukraine, it is not more of a threat to Russia than the missiles are in Poland. Russia can also destroy Europe from anywhere. China knows that the U.S. can hit China even if their missiles are not in Japan or Korea. But the U.S. also knows that China can destroy Hawaii and cities on the West Coast, if not most of the U.S. All the posturing do not make anyone more safe. They can only cause mistakes that lead to conflicts. So let us not cross any lines and start WWIII.
I came across this from CNN today. Interested to see what you say...
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnn.com/2022/04/06/china/china-reacts-bucha-ukraine-atrocities-intl-hnk-mic/index.html
Other than that, I don't have anything to add for this week's blog!
-LBOAYM
Since I don't trust Western media completely, I tried to see the views from both sides of any issue. Of course, I don't trust RT which is the medium run by Russia. In any case, RT has been banned from Youtube so I can't see it anyway. There are some Americans who do have videos presenting the other side. One of them is the The New Atlas run by a former marine who is dissatisfied with the American foreign policies, particularly in Asia. He is based in Thailand and I find his views usually close to my. So far he has not been banned from Youtube so I have been watching him. His take on Bucha is almost exactly opposite of those in the Western media. Without going into details, I did examined both views. It is not easy to tell who is telling the truth. But this is one of the few times that I disagree with him and go along more with the Western narrative.
ReplyDeleteIt is not unusual for an invading army to commit war crimes. When the Russians strikes caused civilian casualties, they were said to have committed war crimes. But I am sure U.S. strikes in Iraq killed many civilians. The response was that the enemy hide among civilians so the enemy is responsible, not the attackers. The same reasoning is now used by the Russians. As for war crimes prosecution, the U.S. cannot bring this up themselves because we refused to sign up with the International Criminal Court so that our soldiers cannot be prosecuted in the Netherland. We even threatened to sanction those prosecutors if they bring up charges against our soldiers.
As mentioned in the previous blog, China is in a no win situation. They cannot say that they believe what the Western media is saying about Bucha and not believe the Russian media. In any case, any condemnation will be too little to the Western countries. If I were their spokesman, I would say that we condemn all war crimes and that after the war is over, those who are responsible should be brought to justice. This is, of course, a meaningless assertion. After the war is over, the winning side will write the history and only the losing side will be prosecuted. If there is no obvious winner, most crimes will be glossed over. War crime victims seldom get justice.