Sunday, September 06, 2009

It seems like we are getting bad news everyday out of Afghanistan. The apparent corruption of the central government in the election and the increase in casualties make this war appear unwinable. This is most unfortunate because if we had not gone into Iraq but focused on Afganistan I think we could have defeated the Taliban permanently and captured most of the leaders of al qaeda, if not bin laden himself. The question is what to do now.

When we went into Afghanistan, I felt our goal was not just to defeat al qaeda and the Taliban but to also rebuild Afghanistan. I felt that if we just bomb the whole place up and leave afterwards it will help the terrorist leaders elsewhere be able to recruit more people against us. But in order to rebuild Afghanistan, there has to be leadership within the country itself. Karzai does not appear to be able provide that leadership. Just like the economic crisis, Obama inherited this war from Bush and owns it now. I don't think he has any good choices here.

I think Obama has to increase his troops in Afghanistan as his generals are suggesting. The surge worked well in Iraq and is worth trying here. But even if we have some military success over the next couple of years it will not be enough. The bad guys can afford to wait it out in the mountains if we drive them back. We must be willing to stay for the long run. But if a surge works a little, at least Obama can then convince Congress and the public that it is worthwhile to keep going. We also need to win over the people outside of Kabul. This means that we have to find a way to bypass the corrupt central government and provide aids to the provinces. This will require more civilian aid workers as well. It will not be an easy task but our fight against terrorism depends on it.

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