Just finished watching Obama's speech. It was great delivery as usual but short on substance. There was talk that he will be more specific after the Republican had nothing specific to say last week. This is a little disappointment for me and independent voters on the fence. I think both sides are afraid that anything specific will immediately be attacked by the other side. It is interesting to me that both sides gave a nod to Bowles-Simpson in their conventions but both sides had rejected it earlier. I think Obama should have promised to enact Bowles-Simpson which is very popular among independents. I think that is one thing specific about taxes, entitlements and deficits that would not become an instant target for the other side to shoot at.
The Democrats made a mess of their platform with God and Jerusalem. I thought that the Republican had the more vulnerable platform particularly with the extreme view on abortion. But leave it to the Democrats to not be able to copy the previous platform and cannot do a voice vote correctly.
I think Ann Romney and Michelle Obama fought to a draw. Biden, I thought was slightly better than Ryan. Also Castro is a rising star and his youthful and fit look trump Chris Christie. I know looks are unfair but Obama rode his keynote speech to eventual presidential nomination. Castro can well do the same in about 12 years. Obama beats Romney because of better deliverance but not in substance. So overall in head to head the Democrats win slightly in my opinion but if someone calls it a draw I will not argue.
Of course the Democrats had a trump card the Republicans did not have: Bill Clinton. Is there any more doubt that Clinton is the best American politician since Kennedy? He is one guy who can make deep political analysis enjoyable to listen to for nearly an hour. I don't think that the Democrats and Obama can possibly ask a better speech from Clinton or anyone else. If Obama gets reelected, he owes Bill a great deal. If Biden and Hillary run against each other in 2016, Obama may have to back Hillary because his debt to Bill.
So what is the result of these two weeks. As I said before, there are only 6-7% undecided and it would take a lot to move the needle. Certainly the Democrats did not lose ground in these two weeks. I think if the job report is bad tomorrow, then it is even. If the job report is better than expected tomorrow then the Democrats get 2 point bump, mostly due to Clinton's effort. This may not sound significant and may not even show up due to margin of error of polls but it would be a couple of points that Romney would have to make up with the debates. But even in this best scenario for the Democrats, it will still go down to the wire.
Thursday, September 06, 2012
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As I stated before, I don't expect much out of these speeches. I agree with you on Obama's speech, though I think he played to the moderates more than Romney did.
ReplyDeleteI actually thought that Michelle Obama's speech was better than Ann Romney's and I gave Ryan and Biden a draw.
As far as Castro goes, I just hope that the Democrats try to force feed him to the public. I am also wondering why his brother doesn't get as much publicity.
CNN had a map of how the votes might go at this point. It looks like Michigan and Ohio (especially Ohio) are the tipping points.
Polls show Romney behind by about 4 points here in Michigan. I don't know if he can make it up, since he's not spending much here right now and Obama will say that he saved the auto industry.
So, that means Ohio is a huge state and it's too close to call right now.
By the way, I missed most of Clinton's speech and will see if I can look it up. I still think that Reagan was just as effective as Clinton as a speaker.
The debates in Ohio will be interesting, though I don't know if they'll make a big difference unless someone really messes up.
-LBOAYM
The job report was not encouraging so I don't think Obama is going to get any bump from the convention. So we are back to square one. I still think that for Romney to win he has to win both Florida and Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio it is likely that he will win Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado which means that he does not need Florida. But nothing is 100% sure at this point.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Reagan is as charming as Clinton as a speaker. But I don't think Democrats and independents think Reagan as intelligent as Clinton. Republicans may not like Clinton but they will agree that he is very intelligent. Clinton's sexual misconducts as governor were well known before he ran for president and yet he won. I don't think that Reagan could have charmed his way out of something similar and became president.
On a different topic, I think that MSU is going to win the extremely weak Big Ten this year. Nebraska lost to UCLA, M barely got by Air Force, so MSU should win its division. In the other division, OSU and PSU are ineligible and Wisconsin lost to Oregan State! So I don't see anyone stopping MSU unless their new qb crumbles under the pressure.
Is it true that the GOP did not invite George W. Bush, Dick Cheney or Colin Powell to the convention (or at least did not have them speak)?
ReplyDeleteIf this is true, then it's an indication of where the party is headed. Even the democrats brought out Kerry.
I hope you are right about MSU. This week's game vs. Notre Dame will be a better indicator of how good they are. I look for MSU to lose one of the games in late October when they have to go to Ann Arbor and Madison, then face Nebraska at home.
I think they will be fine on offense if they can protect the QB. Both teams they've played have stacked the box and I truly believe the outcome of the Boise St. game would have been better had there been protection and had his receivers not turn the ball over.
Oh and as far as Reagan goes, you are right, since he barely made it through Iran-Contra, but he is fondly remembered now. Even among Independents (or are they still called the Reagan Democrats?).
-LBOAYM