Now that the NBA season is completely over with the Warriors winning the championship, it is time to analyze the the career of Jeremy Lin as he comes to a cross road. Three seasons removed from Linsanity, it is clear that Lin is not a super star as his admirers claimed nor is he a D league level player as his critics claim. I believe that he is good enough to be a starter in about half the NBA teams and the first guard off the bench in the other half. A lot depends on the system. But that can be said about a lot of players. Pau Gasol was not a good fit with a poor Lakers team the year before but yet is an all star with the strong Bulls this past season.
Lin's strength: Very good at pick and roll. Not as explosive as Westbrook but fast than most point guards in the NBA which is saying a lot. (This was proven in an ESPN Sport Science program). His decision making has improved thus less turnovers. His problem in the past 3 years is that no pick and roll run for him in Houston and LA. He is not good when told to stand in the corner while Kobe or Harden run the offense. Scott's triangle offense is not a fit for Lin or many others. The triangle is no good unless you have a Jordan or a young Kobe as Derek Fisher and Phil Jackson found out in New York this year. Nobody can guard the pick and roll when there is a good point guard running it. The only way to slow down a Chris Paul is to run pick and roll against him on offense and tire him out. Lin had to battle those fast guards on defense but since he is not allowed to attack them the same way on offense, the opposing point guard can save energy to attack Lin on offense.
This brings to my pet peeve of the criticism that Lin is a poor defender. That is the excuse that Ronnie Price started over Lin. Truth is Price and others like him cannot stop elite point guards either. If he could, he would not be a journeyman his whole career. Lin is not a stopper but he is not soft as Bryant and Scott implied at times. Lin took more charges than anyone on the team this year. How can Bryant call anyone soft when he never takes a charge and admitted that on record?
While some will say that Lin's stats are getting worse each season, it is not true. If you look at points and assists per 36 minutes, Lin has been consistent the last 3 seasons. He scored more with New York per game but his shooting percentage from 3 point range is higher now. He is also having a lot less turnovers. So he is a more mature player and if he gets into the same offense as he did in New York he would do very well. It would not be Linsanity 2, however, as teams know him a lot better and can defend him better. But given the right situation, he can be very productive for the next five years.
So where to next? The ideal situation would have been if Denver had hired D'Antoni who had said that he would be happy to reunite with Lin. But Denver did not hire D'Antoni and while the new coach is said to favor a fast break offense, it is unclear if Denver will go after Lin. There is talk of the Rockets wanting him back if they don't keep Beverly. But will Lin want to go there and watch from the corner while Harden shoots all day? I doubt it although that would be one place Lin can contend for a title. Dallas and Philly maybe other possibilities but Philly may draft a point guard and groom him so Lin would not be there long. Dallas runs a fast pace offense and if both Rondo and Ellis leave, Lin may have an opportunity to start for a decent team. I think Lin will look for the best fit possible and is willing to take less money for that opportunity. Hope he finds that right team.
