Sunday, January 26, 2020

The response to the coronavirus from China is much different than that of the response in 2003 of the SARS epidemic.  I think China has learned its lessons and is much more transparent this time.  They have not try to downplay the danger of the virus as they did last time.  They have also identified the DNA of the virus and share it with other countries so that other countries can respond quickly if their citizens got infected. 

China also has blocked people from Wuhan and other nearby cities from leaving.  This is very drastic given that it is the Chinese New Year where there is great deal of traveling in the country.  They have also started building a hospital, promising to be completed in a week.  Although that deadline is not going to be met, it looks like it will be completed in about 2 weeks.  That is still remarkable.  I don't think in a democratic country, you can block off cities with 20 million people total without a civil fight.  You also won't even get a permit to build a hospital in 2 weeks!

It is hard to say how bad this epidemic is going to end up to be.  But I doubt that there will be thousands of deaths, like how many we get in the U.S. each year from the flu.  Even the SARS epidemic ended with only about 800 deaths.  So maybe we never will blockade a major U.S. city.  But maybe we should mandate flu shots for everyone?  How about childhood vaccines?

Sad news that Kobe Bryant and his daughter died in a helicopter crash today along with 7 others.  One of the greatest player in the history of the NBA, he will be sorely missed in LA and millions of his fans in the world. 

Not a good start for the year of the rat.  Hope things get better as the year goes!

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

The Houston Astros have been found to have cheated in the 2017 World Series with stealing signs by electronic means.  The penalty?   The general manager and the manager got suspended and subsequently fired from their jobs.  Couple of draft choices and five million dollars (the maximum fine under MLB rules).  No players were penalized.  They still get to keep the trophy and their name in the record book.

I don't think these penalties are enough.  They certainly are not going to deter anyone from cheating in the future.  The Astros were warned before the playoffs that there will be penalties if they cheat.  That means that MLB had at least a good idea that this was going on before it happened.  But that didn't stop them.  Now that they get to keep their World Series trophy and the players get no penalty but get to keep their winnings and rings, why would future players and team not cheat if they have a new method to do so?

If someone is found to have cheated in the Olympics, his medal can be taken away and the others move up in the standing.  I don't think it is feasible to make the Dodgers the 2017 champion but they can vacate the Astros championship.  But MLB doesn't like to do this.  Even after Barry Bonds have been found to have cheated, his records still stand.  So MLB is weaker than the IOC which Americans have criticized a lot in the past.

Alex Cora, who was a coach with the Astros, became manager of the Red Sox and they won the World Series over the Dodgers in 2018.  Cora is being investigated for his Red Sox team now.  Could the Dodgers have been cheated twice in a row?  Maybe they should also investigate the 2019 Nationals!

I say vacate the 2017 World Series Championship.  Take at least three first and second round draft choicesfrom the Astros.  Take away all the World Series winnings of the players on the Astros playoff rosters that season plus 20% of their salaries for that season.  This may have a chance to deter cheating in the future.

Sunday, January 05, 2020

The killing of Iranian general Suleimani is sure to escalate the tensions in the Middle East.  Suleimani was an enemy of the U.S. for sure.  But if the justification for killing him now is that he is planning attacks on the U.S. and his killing prevent us from going to war as Trump suggested, it is laughable.  I am sure that Suleimani and others were planning to attack U.S. interests all along.  The fact we kill the top dog in this will not deter anything.  If he had already made plans as was suggested, then surely they will eventually carry out the plans.  And if war has been deterred, then why are we sending more troops into the area?  It is obvious the chance for conflict is now greater, not less as Trump suggested.

This is another blunder on our relationship with Iraq and Iran.  First we helped Saddam Hussein get chemical weapons and used them against Iran.  Then when Hussein attacked Kuwait, we defeated him but did not finish him off.  Then Bush II decided to take his eyes off Afghanistan and invade Iraq with the idea of getting rid of Hussein once for all.  The Iraq war got rid of Hussein but cost our chance of getting rid of the Taliban in Afghanistan.  And the Iraq invasion has had more bad consequences.

Iraq is a Shiite majority country.  So is Iran.  They went to war in the 1980s because Hussein, who was a Sunni, ruled Iraq.  Once you got rid of Hussein, it was easy to predict that Shiites would rule the country.  That means instead of being enemies, Iraq and Iran can be friends.  Is that what the U.S. wanted?  The Iraq leaders are walking a fine line.  On the one hand, with a Shiite majority and a close proximity to Iran, Iraq had to cooperate with Iran.  On the other hand, the government depends on the U.S. for economic aids and military aids against extremists.  So the Iraq leaders do not want to offend either Iran or the U.S.

But with the drone strike that killed Suleimani, some Iraqis were killed also.  This raised anger not only in Iran but in Iraq also.  The Iraqi government could not be seen as allowing the U.S. to do whatever it wants to do in Iraq.  So the relationship between Iraq and the U.S. is sure to deteriorate.  It is likely that Iraq may demand that the U.S. pull out of the country altogether.  Iran's influence in Iraq and the region is sure to to grow.

Pence said that Suleimani and Iran had helped the 9/11 terrorists.  Either he doesn't understand the people of the area or he is just making things up.  Most of the 9/11 terrorists were from Saudi Arabia which is a Sunni nation that is an enemy of Iran.  So the idea that Shiites would help Sunnis is not plausible.  There was no evidence of Iran supporting the 9/11 terrorists.  The Trump administration is saying anything to justify the assassination.  But this would not be the first time that our leaders fail to understand the situation of the region and just blindly use force without an end game plan.