Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Trump is proposing a government run tv network to counter CNN.  I wonder why he always goes after CNN when MSNBC is much more liberal.   I think it is because independents know that MSNBC is very liberal but that CNN is fairly neutral.  As a result the criticism of Trump from CNN is more believable to independents.  So Trump attacks CNN because he thinks that CNN would cost him independent voters.  Never mind he is losing independent voters on his own!

He claims a state run channel will make the U.S. look great.  I guess it will make the U.S. look great to the rest of the world just like the Russian run state tv and the Chinese run state tv make those countries look great!  There are reasons why those tv channels are not believed by the rest of the world:  they are the mouthpieces of dictators!  So does Trump want to make us a dictatorship?  Actually, I think so.  Some think that FOX News is already Trump's state run tv!

So if there is a state tv now, what would some recent headlines look like?
"Ukraine is threatening Russia"   "Saudi journalist killed by enemies of the Crown Prince"  "There is no such thing as climate change--concluded by administration report"  "The CIA has concluded that North Korea has given up on its nuclear project"  "The meddling of the 2016 election was done by a 400 lb guy sitting in his mother's basement"   "GM is hiring another 14,000 workers" 

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

It does not appear that Trump will punish Saudi crown prince over the killing of journalist Khashoggi.  This despite the CIA has said that the crown prince ordered the killing himself.  But it is not surprising that Trump goes against his own intelligence agency.  He did the same with Putin in Helsinki where he famously said that Putin had denied allegations of meddling in U.S. elections "strongly and powerfully".  Recently he also expressed disbelief about North Korea increasing its military program despite the intelligence reports. 

I ask this:  what would republicans say if Obama had express belief in Putin, Kim and the Saudi prince over our intelligence agencies?  I am sure they would have claimed that Obama is treasonous in his actions.  They will say that he is a socialist at least, if not communist.  They will say that kissing up to the Saudis proved that he is a Muslim.  They would say that Obama is against American democracy and values.  What are they saying about Trump today?

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Is it just me or does Trump looks like a weak, old man after the midterm elections?  Before the elections, Trump was going to 3-4 places everyday drumming up support for his candidates.  Never mind he was only going to places where he had a good chance to win so that he can claim victory afterwards.  He seem very energetic then but not anymore.

He missed couple of ceremonies while in France.  He claimed that the weather and security were problems.  But that didn't stop other world leaders to go to the destinations.  The guy who claims to be tough looked weak among other national leaders.  Back home, he didn't go to Veterans Day ceremony.  This is not just looking weak but also a gut punch to all the veterans who served this county bravely.  He sent Pence to Asia instead going there himself.  This is a concession of soft power to people like Xi of China.  In Asia, "face" is very important.  This is a big loss of face for the U.S.

Trump fired Sessions right after the midterms.  Sessions' firing was expected for months.  But as predicted it was done after the midterms so that it won't look bad before the elections.  Well, it looks bad now, just as it did when he fired Comey.  It looks worse when he appointed Whitaker to be the interim AG.  Whitaker was appointed obviously only because he was a mouthpiece for Trump.  But Trump then claimed that he didn't know Whitaker.  So why did he appointed him if he didn't know him?  Plus there is a tape of Trump saying he knows Whitaker well.  What a liar!

Trump took away CNN journalist's white house credentials and posted a doctored video of the incidence that the white house claim as the reason for doing so.  Even Fox News came out in support of CNN on this.  Is he so weak that he has to take away the freedom of the press?

Melanie Trump is calling for the firing of a national security officer.  This is highly unusual for the first lady to publicly call for a firing.  Is Trump going to follow his wife's wish or is he going to placate John Bolton who had brought in this protege of his?  Is Trump so weak that he can't  control  his own wife's message?

Look for more firing in the days ahead.  Also look for more blame of Democrats, the Federal Bank etc. if the stocks go down.  Oh, he had already done so.  It appears now Trump is only energetic when he is trying to deflect blame from himself!

Wednesday, November 07, 2018

So the midterm elections are over.   There are still some close races that have not been decided yet so the final tally is not available.  Let's go over what we know as of now.

The Democrats won back the House as expected.  I had said in the previous blog given the circumstances they should not only get the 23 seats they needed to gain majority, but they need to gain at least 30 to say they have done OK.  Right now they are at 28 plus and still there are more than a dozen seats in play.  So reaching 30 is a lock but to say they had a good night for the House, they need to get to 35 plus.  They are 50-50 for that so they all right for the House races.  They won a lot of the suburban seats that were either red or toss ups in the past so that is good sign. 

I had said that the GOP would not only hold the Senate but was likely to gain 2 seats.  Looks like they flipped four and the Democrats flipped one for a net gain of 3 for the GOP.  So it was a good night for the GOP and shows that it is still difficult to win in the red states like Texas for the Democrats.  The one big disappointment for the Democrats was the loss in Florida.  That is a battleground state with a Democratic incumbent.  They should have been able to hold that one.  The delight for the Democrats is the win in Nevada, beating an incumbent in a battleground state.

I wasn't sure how many governor seats the Democrats were expected to flip.  They flipped 7 which in retrospect was pretty good.  The disappointment again was in Florida.  But the flip in Nevada and particularly in Kansas were good for the Democrats.  The reason they won in Kansas was partly due to the tax cuts that the previous GOP governor instituted which gutted the programs.  The tax cuts did not increase business and jobs.  This is a reminder that tax cuts do not always create jobs and improve the economy as the GOP claim.

So where do we go from here?  Nothing will get done as the Congress will be split.  The Democrats will increase the investigation of Trump.  They will demand to see his tax returns.  But the Democrats need to get of Pelosi as their leader as Trump will attack the House and Pelosi relentlessly in the next two years.

Sunday, November 04, 2018

Game on in two days!  The Democrats have been eyeing this day since the election of 2016 was over.  They have been more pumped since due to the actions and words of Trump.  They have been trying to get out the vote and been pouring in an historic amount of money into this midterm.  If they don't at least win back the House, they will be bitterly disappointed.  So what will be considered a successful election for the Democrats?

The Senate is probably out of reach for the Democrats this year.  Given they had to defend a lot more seats than the GOP and many of those seats are in red states, there was little chance they could have flipped the Senate this year.  I think the bet is that they will lose two seats to make it 53-47 GOP.  They will lose North Dakota for sure.  But if they lose only that one and flip Arizona and Nevada, they can make it 50-50.  This is their best scenario and they will still lose in a tie vote because Pence will break the tie.  But that will still be a resounding victory given the uphill battle.   And it will make it more promising in 2020 when the GOP will have to defend way more seats than the Democrats.

As I said, not flipping the House will be a major defeat for the Democrats even if they gained seats.  Given Trump's unpopularity, the usual midterm losses for the party in power, and the unusual donation advantage enjoyed by the Democrats this year, I would expect the Democrats should flip at least 30 seats.  A 23 flip would win control.  But to say they won, I think Democrats will have to flip at least 30 seats.

At least as important is the governors' races and state legislatures races.  I think Democrats losses in these races in the last decade or so have led to the national defeats in 2016.  If Democrats can win the legislatures and governor's office in battleground states such as Michigan they will be able to redistrict more to their liking starting 2020.  Gerrymandering by the GOP controlled state houses have had an effect on keeping the GOP control of Congress.  So these elections are very important.  I don't know exactly how many of these elections the Democrats need to or can flip.  But how they do in battleground states in the Midwest will be clues to how they do for the whole country.

Regardless of what happens Tuesday, one thing is sure.  Trump will claim credit for GOP victories and blame others for the defeats.  He is campaigning hard in close races for the Senate but is conceding a lot of the House races.  This is due to the fact that the GOP will likely retain control of the Senate, so he can claim victory there.  If they lose the House, he will say see how without his support, those candidates lost on their own.  He will never admit that his unpopularity contributed to the defeats of candidates from his party.  The buck never stops with him.