Wednesday, October 03, 2018

While we are waiting for the result of the FBI investigation and what happens to Kavanaugh after that, I will give my take on the trade pact that Trump has made with Mexico and Canada.

Surprise!  I give Trump credit for getting it done.  I know that Trump doesn't really understand trade and doesn't understand the detail of the agreement.  But he did make the demand for changes in NAFTA.  Sometimes a president gets lucky and things work out and sometimes despite great intentions, things fall apart.  Like I give Obama credit for making the call to get bin Laden.  He didn't know how to find him nor how to get the SEALS in position to get him.  But he was at the helm at the right time, so he gets credit.  So does Trump here.

Having said that, most experts don't think the new agreement will help the economy much.  It may help dairy farmers.  It will force car makers to pay Mexican workers more to avoid tariffs.  But I am not sure that it will bring back auto jobs back to the U.S.  Due to the power of the U.S. economy, Canada and Mexico had to make some concessions.  But only time will tell if this worked out for the better.  Ironically, before Trump, the biggest foes of NAFTA were the unions.  So will see how this works out for Trump and his strange bedfellows, the unions.  By the way, economists also see similarity between this agreement and the TPP which Trump had withdrawn the U.S. from.  So this would be like Obama trashing Romney care and then creating Obamacare!

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