Vicious Rants of an Angry Yellow Man

Game on in two days!  The Democrats have been eyeing this day since the election of 2016 was over.  They have been more pumped since due to the actions and words of Trump.  They have been trying to get out the vote and been pouring in an historic amount of money into this midterm.  If they don't at least win back the House, they will be bitterly disappointed.  So what will be considered a successful election for the Democrats?

The Senate is probably out of reach for the Democrats this year.  Given they had to defend a lot more seats than the GOP and many of those seats are in red states, there was little chance they could have flipped the Senate this year.  I think the bet is that they will lose two seats to make it 53-47 GOP.  They will lose North Dakota for sure.  But if they lose only that one and flip Arizona and Nevada, they can make it 50-50.  This is their best scenario and they will still lose in a tie vote because Pence will break the tie.  But that will still be a resounding victory given the uphill battle.   And it will make it more promising in 2020 when the GOP will have to defend way more seats than the Democrats.

As I said, not flipping the House will be a major defeat for the Democrats even if they gained seats.  Given Trump's unpopularity, the usual midterm losses for the party in power, and the unusual donation advantage enjoyed by the Democrats this year, I would expect the Democrats should flip at least 30 seats.  A 23 flip would win control.  But to say they won, I think Democrats will have to flip at least 30 seats.

At least as important is the governors' races and state legislatures races.  I think Democrats losses in these races in the last decade or so have led to the national defeats in 2016.  If Democrats can win the legislatures and governor's office in battleground states such as Michigan they will be able to redistrict more to their liking starting 2020.  Gerrymandering by the GOP controlled state houses have had an effect on keeping the GOP control of Congress.  So these elections are very important.  I don't know exactly how many of these elections the Democrats need to or can flip.  But how they do in battleground states in the Midwest will be clues to how they do for the whole country.

Regardless of what happens Tuesday, one thing is sure.  Trump will claim credit for GOP victories and blame others for the defeats.  He is campaigning hard in close races for the Senate but is conceding a lot of the House races.  This is due to the fact that the GOP will likely retain control of the Senate, so he can claim victory there.  If they lose the House, he will say see how without his support, those candidates lost on their own.  He will never admit that his unpopularity contributed to the defeats of candidates from his party.  The buck never stops with him.