Saturday, June 10, 2006

There seems to be very little celebration with the death of Zarqawi. Even President Bush cautions that a lot more fighting is ahead. There was none of the claims of victory as after Hussein was captured. This is because we have learned that the insurgency is very resilent and that the loss of one leader will not mean its end. There is question of whether Zarqawi is all that important or even competent as a leader. However, this is an opportunity to use his death to our advantage, although given Bush's reaction he does not seem to see the opportunity.

This is the time now to save face and get the hell out of Iraq. Bush keeps saying that we will stay course until the work is completed. But what is the end point? Does anyone believe that any government can stablize the country in less than 10 years? Certainly not any government that is supported by the U.S. Somewhere down the line the country will be either split into Shiite and Sunni and Kurdish regions via civil war or the Shiites become dominant with the help of Iran and overwhelm the others. I believe one of these scenarios will play out no matter how long we stay in Iraq. If there is any chance for it to turn out differently, it would require us to get out as soon as possible. It is easier for insurgents to recruit as long as there are Americans occupying the country. Sunnis can point to Americans as helping the Shiites to kill them. Shiites can say that if not for American interference, they would have put down the Sunnis already. There maybe a slim chance that without Americans to blame, some moderate leaders can unite the country. Well, at least after several moderate leaders are assassinated first.

What about the argument that we did not finish the job and that would look bad for us in the future. Well, we already lost lot of credibility by invading Iraq in the first place. But everybody still knows that we can kill them. We just can't occupy them. But who else do we want to occupy? Iran and North Korea know that we can't occupy them but so what? They know that we can destroy them. If we leave Iraq they will make fun of us for awhile, but so what? We can claim victory now by saying that the head of the insurgency is dead. The enemy is headless. The Sunni leadership of Hussein and now Zarqawi are gone. The Shiites can run the country with a democratically elected government. It is all up to the leaders of Iraq now. This is what we set out to do. Of course, everybody in the world know that is a lie. But so what? This is the way to save face on the international stage. At least no more soldiers will be killed for no reason and we can spend money on other things that will improve our lives and keep us safer. Bring the troops home now.

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous1:25 PM

    You make some good points. However I am pessimistic that the U.S. will ever be able to save face in that region. Is Iraq better off since we've been there? Maybe. I think the jury is still out on that one. It is going to take years, maybe generations until we realize what kind of impact we had on Iraq. There is much blood left to be shed and I don't see any side willing to back down. The moderates have an uphill climb and many, I fear, will lose their lives for being brave enough to withstand the pressures of their brothers. Maybe it is for the best that there is a civil war in Iraq. But do we want to be known for being the ignitor of such a war? Unfortunately for us, I think a long-term presence in Iraq is the only solution for "peace" in Iraq. I think the only time where we'll be able to pull off a pull out of Iraq is when we capture of kill Osama Bin-Laden. Then we can say the battle has been won.

    LBOAYM

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