Thursday, July 27, 2006

Almost another week has gone by and the Middle East looks the same except with more destructions in Lebanon and Israel. Don't forget Gaza and of course Iraq. The only good news for Bush is the conflict in Lebanon has pushed Iraq to the back page. Does anyone notice the disaster that is happening in Iraq? Each week it has been worse than the one before and more troops will be going there with more U.S. soldiers going out on the streets to try to stop the sectarian violence. Nobody seems to notice this as everyone is focused on Lebanon.

So what is the Bush administration doing about Lebanon? Rice made her rounds but says nothing except to decline to have a cease fire until some permanent solution can be found. In other words we'll let Israel beat up Hezbollah to her satifaction before we call a cease fire. In other words our diplomatic effort will depend on Israel's military effort. As I said before, Israel may win the war but will give birth to more terrorists each day she is destroying Lebanon. Also Israel painted herself into a corner by vowing to destroy Hezbollah. This looks like will take longer than expected. Hezbollah, on the other hand, can claim victory by simply surviving. So if Israel destroys 80% of Hezbollah and then call for a cease fire, we are no better off than if we had called for a cease fire right now. So it is not in the interests of the U.S. to let Israel keep on fighting. We should act in our best intersts just as Iran and Syria would rein in Hezbollah if it is in their best interests to do so.

This brings to what we should do in the future. With countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt all condeming Hezbollah and fearing the power of Iran, this gives the U.S. an opportunity to break up the radicals. Iran and Syria are the supporters of Hamas as well as Hezbollah. If we can break these two apart and leave the other one isolated we may have a chance for an Arab-Israel peace. As I have said, this peace is absolutely necessary if we are to defeat terrorism. This is what Bush should have concentrated on, not going into Iraq. He has a second chance now.

It won't be easy but I think it is possible to get Syria away from Iran. The Iranians are Persians and they tend to look down on Arabs. They are also Shiites and the Syrians are predominantly Sunnis as are the Jordanians who are U.S. allies. Israel and the U.S. also have a negotiating chip, the Golan Heights. The return of the Sinai to Egypt was the key for peace there. Israel eventually will give back the Golan Heights anyways and this is as good as any time to negotiate. The leader of Syria, Assad, is not a religious fanatic like the president of Iran. (can't spell his name) Assad is a British trained physician and I think he would like his country develop economically as King Abdullah is trying to do in Jordan. The only problem is that he is not the strong man his father was so he cannot make peace with Israel without risking his life. Also Israel cannot come out and say she will give up the Golan Heights, so the U.S. will have to use our diplomatic channels to convey the desire.

Of course some will say that Syria was the one to tell Hezbollah to attack so Syria can get back into Lebanon and Assad will not negotiate seriously with Israel. Also some will point out that after the Israelis left Gaza, Hamas attacked Israel. Sure all this maybe true but not trying to break the bad guys up will be an opportunity lost. Even if Israel had not left Gaza, Hamas would cause trouble anyways. And it would be obvious that if there is a possiblity of peace, the bad guys will try to stop the process. You just have to keep doing the right thing and maybe someday the goal will be achieved. If Syria decides to make peace, it will be automatic that Iran will cause big trouble. But if you don't try to make peace with Syria, you know that Iran will cause trouble anyways but will also be helped by Syria. Right now most of the Arab countries are condemning Hezbollah and they are afraid of Iran getting stronger. Now is the time to try to get the Syrians to join their Arab brothers.

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