Vicious Rants of an Angry Yellow Man

The Iraq Study Group came out with its long-awaited recommendations. There were no surprises, from the bleak outlook currently, to the need to withdraw combat troops by early 2008, and the call for the Iraqi government to do better. This is a repudiation of the Bush policies and I think with the results of the mid-term elections combining with this report, the Bush administration may finally be less arrogant in insisting we are going to win. Neverthless, I see Bush only making minor changes. He will announce some shift in strategies but I don't see us out of Iraq by 2008. Bush will finish his term with troops in Iraq and then it will be the new president's mess. Eventually we will leave Iraq and then Bush will claim that if we had stayed we would have prevailed. Of course history will not buy this and future historians will regard Bush as one of the worst president, if not the worst.

This report by the ISG has no influence at all on my opinion. While it recommends the troops be out by 2008, I believe we should just get out now. When Al Zarqawi was killed, I said we should get out now and save face. (June 10, 2006) People said back then that if get out now a civil war would break out. Well, civil war is here now, whether you admit it or not. Right now the Americans are caught in the middle and Shiites, Sunnis, Iran, and Syria all blame the U.S. for the instablity. Once we leave, there will be no "occupier" to blame and nobody who will keep the violence down for either the Sunnis or Shiites. Well, we should just leave and then all the clerics that are inciting the violence will have to figure what to do along with the Iranians and Syrians. The timetable for withdraw should be negative 3 years, in my humble opinion.

This brings to one of the more interesting recommendations by the ISG. This is the diplomacy with Iran and Syria. During the Hezbollah-Israel battles during the summer, I recommended that we talk to Syria. I still believe that Syria will more likely come around than Iran. But in any case, neither one wants to have instablity in Iraq without the Americans there. Right now they are friends because they have a common enemy in the Americans. Once we leave, Syria will have to support the Sunnis and Iran will support the Shiites and the conflict may spill into their territories. There will also be conflict between Shiite Arabs in Iraq versus Shiite Persians in Iran. So threaten them with American withdrawl now. They may not be helpful, as the Bush administration insists, but what have we got to lose? For decades we negotiated with the USSR and it was much more dangerous than Iran or Syria. This is not appeasement to our enemies like Chamberlain did with Hitler. If one decides to negotiate with us, the other will have to also or risk being isolated. Unfortunately, the Bush administration is too stubborn and refuses to talk to the Iranians and Syrians.

One recommendation that is lost in the report is the Israel-Palestinian issue. People are so focused on the Iraq war and terrorism that they forget that the Israel-Palestinian conflict is what begat all these mess in the first place. The report mentioned that we need to work more on this conflict. This actually is the most important thing in the long run. There is no chance for victory in the war on terrorism without first ending this conflict. Of course, this have been ignored by the Bush administration from the beginning and will continued to be ignored while it tries to salvage Iraq before the next election.