Friday, May 01, 2009

I have not written anything for awhile. There are several things I wanted to write about in the past week. But I have been very busy at work and have been too tired to think when I got home. Obviously I have been busy because of the swine flu situation. It is not that I have seen any cases of this disease so far but I have been busy answering questions from patients who have nothing or some other infection symptoms. I don't think this disease is any more dangerous than the usual flu. In fact its symptoms are the same as any ordinary flu. It has probably been working its way through Mexico for awhile but now that it is recognized as a new strain and has a name attached to it, people get more nervous. My guess, and it is only a guess, is that it will fade in 2 to 3 weeks. It may make a come back in the winter season but by then we should be well prepared for it.

There are still couple of important questions that nobody has been able to answer. One is why people in Mexico die and people in the U.S. so far have not? The second one is why does this flu affect young healthy people more than the elderly or infants? I will give my take on these, not that I know anything concrete and maybe proven way off base later. First of all the Mexican death rate of this disease may not be any different that an usual flu death rate. Once we know the exact number infected and the exact number of death then we can see if this really more deadly than other flu. As more Americans get infected we are likely to have deaths from this although again it may not be a higher rate than the usual flu.

As for young healthy people getting sicker my theory is that this disease is causing the body's immune system to overreact and injur itself. In other words like friendly fire in a war. Now healthy young people normally have a stronger immune system which would kill pathogens quicker and more effectively. In this case it may overreact and cause damage to its own cells. Mexicans are probably exposed to more disease than the average Americans and so may have a slightly stronger immune system but in this case it may back fire. Do I have scientific data to back up this theory? No, but my experience is that when Americans go to Mexico and eat in the villages like the natives do, they get sick. But the natives don't get sick eating the same food because they have built immunity. So I think generally the young Mexicans would do better against infections than Americans, but maybe the immunological reaction is too strong this time. Well, I put my 2 cents worth on this subject and will see how it plays out over the next couple of weeks.

2 comments:

  1. Anonymous9:47 AM

    Yeah I've been waiting to see what you were going to write next. I'm mixed on this whole Swine Flu thing. The media can't win on this because if it doesn't report anything then it's be "irresponsible" and if it's reporting every little school closing or possible case, it's "sensationalizing" the news. It will be interesting how this all plays out. Do you think the virus would spread and we'd hear more cases if nobody knew about it or if they didn't close down schools? Are all your patients coming in thinking they have it now? Will your son shake hands at his graduation? So many questions. Hope you can relax on your trip.

    -LBOAYM

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  2. Looks like the hysteria is subsiding. I think they have figured out that closing the schools do not make any difference in the spread. I think at the national level it was handled as well it can be done. Until they understand the virus the warnings had to be given out. At the local level things kind of got out of hand here. For example every kid who sneezed was sent home or to the doctor's office. This is settling down but remember the virus may come back next winter and may come back stronger if it has a chance to spread in the Southern Hemisphere during their winter months and mutate before coming back!

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