Last week Barbara Boxer announced that she won't run for reelection to the senate. So finally one of the 3 big elected office in California will be taken by fresh blood. Dianne Feinstein will most likely not run the next time she is up for election and Jerry Brown will be term limited out in 4 years. So will see an era of new leadership in California over the next few years. Given the high percentage of Hispanics and Asians in the state, one would think that these positions can very well be filled by one or more minorities. And given that the state is dominated by Democrats, you would think that minorities from the state would also be national leaders in the Democratic party. But that does not appear to be the case.
In fact the most likely minority candidate for Boxer's job is Kamala Harris, the black state attorney general. There are no Latino or Asian candidate that is likely to win this state wide election at this time. Among Asians only John Chiang, the former controller and present state treasurer, is even a viable candidate. And since he just won election for treasurer in November, I think he is a few years away. I also think that voters have less trouble voting for an Asian to a position involving math than voting for him to be a chief executive or national office. Part of the problem for minorities is that the Big Three have been there so long that nobody has any experience running in competitive state offices.
But interesting enough, while California and the Democrats are not producing any viable minority national politicians, the Republicans are actually doing a better job of this. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Bobby Jindhal come to mind. I think this is due to Republicans are trying to look not so white. So any minority who claims to be a conservative Republican is going to get support from the party in races that are winnable. The Democrats can wheel out any white liberal in a state like California and win anyway. So while demographic changes in the future would seem to favor Democrats, if they take minorities for granted, they can lose their advantage. I think as Hispanics and Asian move up the economic ladder, the Republicans will gain a higher percentage of them. So will see if the Democrats notice this and try to consolidate the minority base by promoting more minority candidates in California over the next few years.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
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They had a thing on Governor Brown on the CBS Sunday Morning Show and I thought it was pretty interesting. I didn't realize he made some really tough cuts and got a lot of the Democrats mad. I always imagined him as pretty liberal. Maybe he has changed as he's gotten older.
ReplyDeleteSeems like California is on the comeback trail, so it sounds like some of his policies helped, plus he got re-elected, so he seems to have won some people over.
The thing about Asians, is that they are divided as far as party lines go. So, it can be hard to win their vote. I don't know too many moderates like you and myself. They seem to go one way or the other.
I am surprised though, that there aren't, or seem to be, that many minorities that run for office in California. What do you think the cause is? I know you couldn't get me to run for office. Mostly because I don't want to play the political game.
OK, I see a lot of people picking OSU now. I am tempted to pick them, but will stick with Oregon even though they lost a WR due to marijuana, and a back up OL player. I still think the system Oregon runs will help and they'll score in bunches. Still am not convinced that OSU's QB can step up again in a big game like tonight.
As far as NFL goes, I am looking at a Seattle/New England Super Bowl. I am assuming you'll take New England, so I will go with Seattle, which is very risky, considering that it's hard to repeat!
-LBOAYM
Brown was the youngest governor in modern history of California and also the oldest governor in history of California! So I guess it is not surprising that he went from liberal to moderate during these years!
ReplyDeleteI think there are a lot of moderate Asians. But as with other groups, the extremes on both sides out shout the moderates. Also neither party court moderate Asians to be candidates for office. We are only somewhat important as voters.
There are a lot of elected minorities in California but they are elected in districts or cities that are liberal. So they have never cut their teeth in a competitive state wide election. But the Democrats have not groom anyone to take over for the Big Three. So maybe they are going to put out Gavin Newsome, a well known white guy out there next.
I think Harbaugh is going to have a big headache after watching OSU tonight. I think the only chance other Big Ten teams have over the next few years would be if Urban Meyer decides to quit like he did at Florida. They are a underclassman dominated team and that is very scary.
The logical thing is to believe that New England and Seattle are the two best teams. But I would not count out Green Bay and Indianapolis. Since you made your prediction, I will pick New England vs Green Bay with New England winning it all.
Boy was I totally wrong about the championship game. The game started out like Oregon was going to score at will. In fact, their 2 following drives killed any momentum they had with the 2 dropped passes.
ReplyDeleteNo doubt Oregon could not stop OSU when they had to. So OSU probably would win 7 out of 10 times if they played.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with Meyer. His retirement from Florida was sudden. But we really don't know the circumstances.
I really like Indy but it's too hard to beat New England in Foxboro. I think Rodgers' injury will be a factor and Seattle's defense is too good.
-LBOAYM