Paul Ryan announces that he will not seek reelection. This means there will be a battle for the leadership of the GOP in the House. It is hard to blame Ryan, who was reluctant to take the Speaker's job in the first place. Having to deal with the Tea Party and Trump is too much for anyone. If the GOP loses centrists like Ryan, McCain, Graham and Kasich, it will cease to exit as a major party. At this rate others will follow Ryan's lead to not run for reelection and signal to the GOP to put their resources to defending the senate.
The Democrats can make sure they win the House by getting rid of Pelosi as leader. The only strong point for a GOP candidate in a battle district is to ask: Do you want Pelosi to be Speaker again? Pelosi has been around too long and it is time to bring fresh blood to the leadership.
I think it is good for Ryan that he gets out now. He is still young and has chances to run for president later. But if he stays as speaker, he will be tied to the inability to control the Tea Party and to the toxic presidency of Trump. Couple more years of that, it would have ended Ryan's political career anyway. So spend time with the kids and if the tax cut turned out ok, run on that legislative achievement in 7 years. But he may have to run as a third party candidate then as the GOP as we know it may not exist then.
Wednesday, April 11, 2018
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I've never thought of Ryan as a centrist. He's no tea party guy though. Is he more to the left of Cruz and Rubio? This is an interesting decision and will we hold him to his statement that the speaker job is his last one in politics? I think he'll enter some kind of private life but will stay politically active. I can see him head a conservative organization or be on TV. Then again, this will all have to happen in Wisconsin, unless he moves his family permanently somewhere.
ReplyDeleteThe race for his seat will be a big one to watch. Seems to me that the Republicans are caught off guard and will have to sink a ton of money to find a candidate and raise money for him/her.
It'll be interesting to see if Pelosi somehow steps aside. I'm not sure if she realizes how much she weighs down the Democrats. I'm surprised she gets re-elected every time.
-LBOAYM
I think Ryan as a moderate within the GOP. He is left of Cruz for sure and probably left of Rubio. His strength is policy details such as social security calculations. I may not agree with his math but at least he trying to prove his point with facts and figures and not ideology like those of the Tea party. If the tax cut works out well in the next few years he can be a presential candidate since he had more to do with the tax cut then Trump or McConnell.
ReplyDeleteI think Trump will bomb Syria in the next couple of days to detract from the investigations and make himself look tough.