Wednesday, November 07, 2018

So the midterm elections are over.   There are still some close races that have not been decided yet so the final tally is not available.  Let's go over what we know as of now.

The Democrats won back the House as expected.  I had said in the previous blog given the circumstances they should not only get the 23 seats they needed to gain majority, but they need to gain at least 30 to say they have done OK.  Right now they are at 28 plus and still there are more than a dozen seats in play.  So reaching 30 is a lock but to say they had a good night for the House, they need to get to 35 plus.  They are 50-50 for that so they all right for the House races.  They won a lot of the suburban seats that were either red or toss ups in the past so that is good sign. 

I had said that the GOP would not only hold the Senate but was likely to gain 2 seats.  Looks like they flipped four and the Democrats flipped one for a net gain of 3 for the GOP.  So it was a good night for the GOP and shows that it is still difficult to win in the red states like Texas for the Democrats.  The one big disappointment for the Democrats was the loss in Florida.  That is a battleground state with a Democratic incumbent.  They should have been able to hold that one.  The delight for the Democrats is the win in Nevada, beating an incumbent in a battleground state.

I wasn't sure how many governor seats the Democrats were expected to flip.  They flipped 7 which in retrospect was pretty good.  The disappointment again was in Florida.  But the flip in Nevada and particularly in Kansas were good for the Democrats.  The reason they won in Kansas was partly due to the tax cuts that the previous GOP governor instituted which gutted the programs.  The tax cuts did not increase business and jobs.  This is a reminder that tax cuts do not always create jobs and improve the economy as the GOP claim.

So where do we go from here?  Nothing will get done as the Congress will be split.  The Democrats will increase the investigation of Trump.  They will demand to see his tax returns.  But the Democrats need to get of Pelosi as their leader as Trump will attack the House and Pelosi relentlessly in the next two years.

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