Happy new year, everybody, Hope 2019 is better for us domestically, internationally and economically. It will be quite a year with the Democrats taking over the House, Mueller's investigation bound to be over and all the Democratic presidential hopefuls will be throwing their hats into the ring.
The first hat has already been thrown. Elizabeth Warren has announced she is a candidate already. She is already well known and yet she feels compelled to beat people like Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders to the punch. So all others may have to follow suit. I personally don't think Warren is the best candidate. Her heart is in the right place. Her call for regulation of Wall Street is correct, in my opinion. But she comes across as too preachy and plays into the mid America's fear that coastal elitist are trying to tell them what to do. She may not be able to carried swing states such as Ohio, Michigan and Florida. I also don't think that it will be good for the country if we swing to far left. So being darling of the left like Sanders and Harris will not be ideal in the 2020 election.
My early pick is Joe Biden. That is of course depending on his health and energy level since he is on the old side. The left may think that he is too throw back to the past. But I think his experience, especially in foreign affairs, is needed now. Despite being a white male, I think he can get the black voters to come out as he was Obama's vp and good friend. He will also be able to carry places like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan against Trump. To balance the ticket and have a shot at Texas, I recommend that he pick Beto O'Rourke to be vp. It also will show that the Democrats are ready for the next generation of leadership.
Tuesday, January 01, 2019
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I don't see anyone from the Democrats that can win right now, if the Trump base shows up again. People love Biden but I don't think he excites the fringe that he needs to show up. I think that Sanders has some big supporters but I think there will be a segment that won't vote for him.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, I can actually see Beto running and being a dark horse. It's kind of hard to convince the public to vote for someone who doesn't have the experience and who didn't win his election. However, Trump was elected without any political qualifications as well, so you never know.
I also wonder if anyone in the GOP would have the guts to rally the party back to where it should be and run against Trump. Someone like Kasich would be a great alternative but we don't know how strong the Trump supporters are in the party.
By the way, did you hear about the man that was detained in Russia? He is from Michigan.
http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/novi-man-in-russia-for-wedding-at-time-of-spying-arrest-family-says
I haven't checked but who won between us in the Big Ten bowl games?
-LBOAYM
I am sure you have checked out the bowl games result. You beat me badly. But then everyone could have beat my 2-7 record. This is by far the worst I have done. So I won't forecast anything in 2019 unless it is to jinx somebody!
ReplyDeleteBut for 2020, I think that if things stand the way it is, anyone who is not ultra liberal can beat Trump. I don't think that Trump can flip any states to his favor. Then the Democratic nominee just has to flip two of the four swing states that Trump won: Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. Michigan, Florida and Wisconsin all went to Trump by less than 1.2%. Given the midterm result and Trump's approval ratings, they should be flipped. Certainly someone like Biden should carry those states against Trump. Younger, more progressive candidates can do better than Biden in places like Calif., NY and Mass. but who cares? They would be more vulnerable in places that count.
I don't think Beto O'Rourke can win the election on his own. He may not be able to carry Texas even. But with him on the ticket, it will force Trump to spend lots of energy to defend Texas. After all, if he loses Texas, the Democrats don't need to flip any other states.
Yeah, I heard about the guy detained in Russia. I am sure it is tit for tat. I wonder what Trump is going to do about it. Is he going to forcefully and strongly deny that the guy is a spy and thinks that Putin will believe him? Or is he going to say that Putin says that Butina is not a spy and so we must exchange prisoners? All I know is that I wouldn't want to travel to Russia or China now!
Before anyone challenges my math. I meant to say that the Democrats just need to flip Florida plus one of the other 3 swing states to win. They can also win if they again lose Florida but flips Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.
ReplyDeleteI actually didn't look at the bowl games results but figured I did better because if my memory is correct, I was more bullish on the Big Ten.
ReplyDeleteI think you might be underestimating the Trump people. Maybe I am overestimating! Even though there was a small blue wave during the mid terms, it seems to me that it could have been much bigger. So, I think that the Trump base will come out again in 2020. The question is if the votes will be along party lines. I believe that most moderates will lean left, but didn't they last election?
I do agree with you that it'll come down to the swing states again. Can Trump win by 1% again? Michigan will depend on how the rural areas vote this time. At this point, the tariffs might be hurting them, but in 2 years, things might look up.
Wisconsin surprised many by going blue during the midterms, but is historically red.
What about Joe Kennedy III as a candidate?
-LBOAYM
I might be underestimating Trump's support. But I don't agree that the blue wave in 2018 is a surprise anywhere or that it won't be duplicated in 2020. Wisconsin is not a historically red state, nor are Ohio, Florida and Michigan. Obama won all 4 of those in his two elections. Of course, it would be impossible to duplicate the black support Obama got. But that is why I think Biden is the best candidate, at least for now, because Obama will stump for him vigorously and Biden can do well with the blue collar white vote because he is not coastal elite like Warren, Harris etc. The GOP will also have to defend a lot of senate seats like the Democrats had to do in 2018. I think a lot of the senate GOP candidates will have to go against Trump for their own survival. Plus, Obamacare is a positive now for the Democrats where it was a negative for them in 2016.
ReplyDeleteA lot depends on the economy at election time. Also depends on the result of the Mueller investigation. If Trump is not found to have done anything wrong, then he can use it to campaign against the witch hunt. I don't think this is likely.
I don't know anything about Joe Kennedy III and I have not heard that he is showing strong interest in running. After Bush and Clinton, I am not sure a big name is going to make much difference.
I think you may have mis-interpreted when I mentioned the blue wave earlier. If I remember correctly, you had put out a number of how many seats would have to go blue in both the house and senate and governor races before the election for it to be successful. The numbers hit slightly below, I thought. It's still a good showing for the Democrats, but I get the feeling that they were hoping for it to be a bigger number. Many thought that with all the controversy regarding POTUS, that there would be a bigger push against him.
ReplyDeleteHowever, without looking at data, I don't think that was the case. In fact, I think that the Trump supporters are still strong and will show up again in 2020 (unless someone in the GOP decides to run against him and wins---small chance, I know).
As far as calling Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida a "historically red state", I didn't mean the presidential election as much as past governors it has elected. I think a majority of time over the last 20 years, they've elected Republicans. As far as the presidential election, yeah Obama was strong in each of those, but I am not sure if Biden will get the same pull. Remember that Obama couldn't get Clinton votes and I am not sure that Biden is held in the same regard as Clinton among black voters.
There's also been rumors that Biden has some harassment allegations that the GOP will use (which is kind of ironic), and that may turn off the female vote. So if Biden runs and gets on the ticket, does he bring in someone like Harris or Warren?
As far as Obamacare goes, it's still a divided subject. I actually think that overall, healthcare costs is a bigger subject, but it seems that the Affordable Healthcare Act is tied into rising costs, which is false. I'm sure that POTUS will still hammer it because we'll still see costs rise in 2 years (and beyond).
The Mueller investigation conclusion will be interesting and may be the tipping point. Though we know that Trump's supporters will still vote for him either way. I am not sure if there is a way for them to pull him from office. It'll be tied in the courts and he won't be punished (if there is any) until he is out of office.
I have heard rumblings that Kennedy III is someone the party is trying to groom. Whether that means 2020 or beyond, I don't know. Things move a lot faster these days. Nobody really thought Obama would be a viable candidate.
-LBOAYM
If you go back to my blog in Nov. I said that the Democrats will probably lose two seats overall in the senate due to the high numbers of seats they had to defend. I said that even though 23 seats flipped in the House will give them majority, they need to flip at least 30 to claim success. Well, they flipped 39! So it was a strong blue wave, not a weak one. Here in Orange county, Ca., called Reagan territory since 1980s, all 6 seats that the Democrats dreamed of flipping, did just that. One of the new Congresswoman from there, Katie Hill, was on CNN last night along with new Michigan Congresswoman Haley Stevens who also flipped the seat there. It was interesting that those two are new friends and seem to be among the leaders of the freshman class! I don't know much about the governors of various states but I think it was a good sign for the Democrats that they flipped Wisconsin and Michigan.
ReplyDeleteIf the Democrats nominee cannot flip 1% in Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin then he or she do not deserve to be president. Clinton was a flawed candidate with the email controversy right up to the date of election. Even then she won the popular vote. So unless he gets exonerated by Mueller, I think Trump will be in trouble against whoever. But I maintain that unless something happens, like a scandal you mentioned possible, Biden is the best candidate for now. I think Obama and the black voters will come out more for Biden than Clinton. But even if they don't, the biggest group that cost Clinton the election was blue collar white men. Biden is the best candidate to narrow the gap among that group.
I don't know how far Kennedy III is from a finished product but remember even an experienced politician like Ted Kennedy never got the nomination. Of course, if John Kennedy Jr. is still alive then the Kennedy name would have carried on for sure.
Well the numbers don't lie, but it seems to me with all the hype (and maybe I'm wrong) that the blue wave would be bigger. I realize realistically that it would have been tough to gain seats in the Senate and win those 3 big governor races that the Dems eventually lost (Texas, Georgia and Florida). To me, that would have been a bigger indicator that Trump's influence isn't as strong. But I guess in the overall picture to see that these races were close is a good sign for the Dems.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is, can this momentum continue? I'm not so sure. And who knows if Biden will even run. What happens if Clinton decides to run again? Will that divide the party? As far as Ted Kennedy goes, I think it was always bad timing for him. And there were always scandals that I think the party could not get past with him. Also, didn't Rose Kennedy forbid him to run?
I guess we will see in the next 12 months who will be running.
-LBOAYM