The killing of Iranian general Suleimani is sure to escalate the tensions in the Middle East. Suleimani was an enemy of the U.S. for sure. But if the justification for killing him now is that he is planning attacks on the U.S. and his killing prevent us from going to war as Trump suggested, it is laughable. I am sure that Suleimani and others were planning to attack U.S. interests all along. The fact we kill the top dog in this will not deter anything. If he had already made plans as was suggested, then surely they will eventually carry out the plans. And if war has been deterred, then why are we sending more troops into the area? It is obvious the chance for conflict is now greater, not less as Trump suggested.
This is another blunder on our relationship with Iraq and Iran. First we helped Saddam Hussein get chemical weapons and used them against Iran. Then when Hussein attacked Kuwait, we defeated him but did not finish him off. Then Bush II decided to take his eyes off Afghanistan and invade Iraq with the idea of getting rid of Hussein once for all. The Iraq war got rid of Hussein but cost our chance of getting rid of the Taliban in Afghanistan. And the Iraq invasion has had more bad consequences.
Iraq is a Shiite majority country. So is Iran. They went to war in the 1980s because Hussein, who was a Sunni, ruled Iraq. Once you got rid of Hussein, it was easy to predict that Shiites would rule the country. That means instead of being enemies, Iraq and Iran can be friends. Is that what the U.S. wanted? The Iraq leaders are walking a fine line. On the one hand, with a Shiite majority and a close proximity to Iran, Iraq had to cooperate with Iran. On the other hand, the government depends on the U.S. for economic aids and military aids against extremists. So the Iraq leaders do not want to offend either Iran or the U.S.
But with the drone strike that killed Suleimani, some Iraqis were killed also. This raised anger not only in Iran but in Iraq also. The Iraqi government could not be seen as allowing the U.S. to do whatever it wants to do in Iraq. So the relationship between Iraq and the U.S. is sure to deteriorate. It is likely that Iraq may demand that the U.S. pull out of the country altogether. Iran's influence in Iraq and the region is sure to to grow.
Pence said that Suleimani and Iran had helped the 9/11 terrorists. Either he doesn't understand the people of the area or he is just making things up. Most of the 9/11 terrorists were from Saudi Arabia which is a Sunni nation that is an enemy of Iran. So the idea that Shiites would help Sunnis is not plausible. There was no evidence of Iran supporting the 9/11 terrorists. The Trump administration is saying anything to justify the assassination. But this would not be the first time that our leaders fail to understand the situation of the region and just blindly use force without an end game plan.
Well, this is whole thing smells weird. And I know people will defend the action because they just will. Then you will have people who like a good conspiracy and think of this as a Wag the Dog situation. I don't think we will ever get a good grasp at how things are in the region. It's obvious that we can't take sides because of all the various religions. Going into Iraq during Bush 2's was probably the worst thing we could have done. But Bush wanted his scapegoat for 9-11, right? The funny thing is that for some reason, we never blame the Saudis. Is it because of oil? Like I said in a previous blog, it's all about $.
ReplyDeleteIt'll be interesting to see what Iran's retaliation will be. I can't imagine it would want a war. Would Iraq back such a war?
-LBOAYM
It looks like Iran doesn't want a war. They fired missiles but they hit just outside of the area where American soldiers were stationed. This way they can say they attack the Americans but gives Trump a chance to not escalate. Will see what Trump does next.
ReplyDeleteI don't think the threat was imminent. If it was, it will still be carried out soon even if the head guy is dead. I think Trump realizes that his backing out of the Iran nuclear deal is not working. No other country is supporting him. Iran is acting out because of the sanctions. With this assassination of Suleiman, Iran will go back to enrich uranium. Iraq has already demand the U.S. pull out its troops. They may not go through with kicking us out but there is no question that Iran will gain more influence on this. All these are unforced errors that Trump has made.