Well, super Tuesday was super for Biden only. He used the momentum from South Carolina to surge back to front runner status. It looks like the moderates are rallying around him with Pete, Amy and Mike all dropping out and endorsing him. But don't count out Sanders. He still has a big war chest and a lot of rabid supporters. If Warren drops out and endorses him, he will be almost even with Biden. Since Biden is prone to gaffe, Sanders can be in the driver's seat again very soon.
A lot will depend on Michigan next week and Ohio the week after. Sanders had said that he wants all internal combustion engines in cars be gone by 2030. Biden will likely hammer him on that in those two states. If that tactic is effective and the black vote is overwhelming for Biden again, that would be very bad for Sanders. If, on the other hand, Sanders does better than expected with the white blue collar workers in the industrial Midwest, it would be a boost for him.
I think Obama will wait till there is a clear victor before inserting himself into the election. The party will need to lick the self inflicted wounds from the primaries. Obama will need to be the healer, convincing the losing side to support the winning side vigorously. It will be harder for him to do so if he had supported one or the other, especially if he endorses Biden and he wins. The Sanders faction will not listen to Obama since they would think he had influence in their candidate's defeat. After the nomination, look for him to go to the swing states to try to bring out the black votes. He will be much more aggressive this time as he is no longer the president.
I don't buy that Trump is throwing Pence under the bus by giving this corona virus job so that he can fail and he can name Haley as VP candidate. If Pence fails, it will make Trump look bad as well. And what makes Trump think that Haley will bring in more votes than Pence? I doubt she will be more popular than Pence in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Pence has been very loyal to Trump while Haley has mostly been loyal, she had occasionally said something different than what Trump wanted while she was in the UN. So I don't see a change in VP happening.
Now if Haley is picked and the Democrats pick Harris, then it will be interesting. Who would Indian Americans come out for? Both are of Indian descent but one identify herself as black most of the time and the other acts like she is white most of the time. Neither has an Indian sounding name. So it may not make much a difference in the Indian community.
Wednesday, March 04, 2020
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I thought Super Tuesday was pretty interesting. Didn't think Biden would do as well as he did in some states and am a little surprised at how poorly he did in California. I didn't see exactly how California shook out but before I went to bed, Bloomberg was in 2nd place, which was more shocking to me.
ReplyDeleteSo today, Bloomberg dropped out. I still don't understand why Gabbard is still running and Warren is still trying to figure out what her next move is. I wonder if she'll wait until after Ohio, just to steal some votes from Sanders.
The latest polls in Michigan show Biden in front by 7 points, so I don't see Sanders closing that gap to win. But who knows.
Finally saw some Biden commercials today. Sanders started running his last week and Bloomberg is still running his ads. I wonder if he'll change them up and run some for Biden since I'm sure he's already paid for time.
-LBOYAM
Sanders was supposed to win big in California. He is still going to win, even though CNN has not declare him the winner yet. Biden is solidly at second and actually did better than expected here. Bloomberg and Steyer bombard the airwaves in the past few weeks here but that did not pay off.
ReplyDeleteNot sure why Warren hasn't dropped out after finishing third in Mass., her own state. So I think she is actually trying to figure who to back. Sanders and her were friends on the progressive wing but they seemed to have estranged. If she backs Biden, it maybe a death blow to Sanders. Or she may think that neither will get a majority and then in a broker convention, she would be a compromise candidate. Very doubtful!
I think Sanders was up by 7 points or more in Texas one week ago, so Biden is not a sure in yet in Michigan. Sanders is expected to attack Biden for his part in NAFTA, which the auto workers did not like. But as I mentioned, his stand on getting rid of the internal combustion engine by 2030 will hurt him.
Also I see Sanders ads touting Obama saying good things about him. But how does that work in Michigan when he is attacking NAFTA, since Obama would have had more influence on NAFTA than Biden had. Obama obviously has a better relationship with Biden than Sanders. So I don't see how these ads help him. Also, why are the ads airing in California since we already voted yesterday?
Yeah, I wonder if Bloomberg will go all out to help Biden. I think he may hold back and use his resources in the general election since he hates Trump. Ultimately, how the coronavirus situation go and the impact it has on the economy will probably affect the general election more than anything else.
I can't imagine that the virus will be much of a factor come November, unless there is a huge outbreak in the U.S. in the fall and stocks tumble. I mean, according to Trump, it's supposed to stop by April!
ReplyDeleteWarren left the race today but didn't endorse anyone yet. I am not a big fan of endorsing a candidate unless it's like what Pete and Amy did last week. The governor of Michigan endorsed Biden today and to me, she should just stay out of it because if Sanders wins, you've spent some clout on the wrong candidate and it might hurt in the election.
If Warren were smart, she would hold out and see who gets offers her a position in the cabinet. Heck, maybe she should be the Education Secretary.
I wonder if those Sanders ads will do anything. I know a few black people who are not convinced Biden is the answer and is a friend of blacks. They are considering Sanders, but maybe that's a Michigan thing.
I don't know the history of NAFTA with Obama and Biden. I remember Clinton getting it signed, I think, but maybe what you are saying is that Obama had a chance to change it and didn't when he was in office. However, I would counter that Obama saved the auto industry, so my guess is that the auto workers like Biden. It'll be interesting to see if the UAW endorses anyone before the primary!
-LBOAYM