It is with great sadness that I hear the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Justice Ginsburg is certainly a great icon in American law. A great talent, a great fighter for justice and in the past twenty years a great fighter against cancer and other health issues. She will be greatly missed.
The possibility of her dying has been a great fear among Democrats since Trump was elected. Certainly if Clinton had been elected, RBG would have retired. But when Trump was elected, she did all she could to stay alive so that she would not be replaced by a Trump appointee. She did not quite make it to January of 2021. But maybe she stayed alive long enough to avoid the unthinkable: McConnell being able to confirm a third Trump nominee.
Mitch McConnell is going to try to ram a nomination through before Biden becomes president. Never mind the hypocrisy of him blocking Obama's nomination for eight months before the 2016 election. Now with about one and half month left before the 2020 election, McConnell thinks it is legitimate for the GOP to grab another Supreme Court seat. This just shows what kind of people McConnell and most of the GOP are today.
The GOP has 53 seats in the Senate. With Pence being the tie breaker, the Democrats need to flip 4 votes to prevent McConnel to succeed in this travesty. Collins of Maine and Murkowski of Alaska have indicate that they don't think it is right for this nomination to go forward. Romney may be another vote. Chuck Grassley and Lindsay Graham have indicated in the past that it would not be right to have a nomination late in the year of a presidential election. These two are iffy at best though. There is also the possibility if Kelley wins in Arizona in a special election to replace McCain, then he could be sworn in as early as November 30 instead of January. That would make a lame duck confirmation of the appointee by Trump to be less likely.
There is also the possibility of an expansion of the number of Supreme Court justices if Democrats win the Senate and the presidency. Chuck Schumur has threatened this if McConnell insisted on ramming this nomination through. I don't know how legal this is and how hard politically this is. I understand there is not a set number of justices according the constitution. But will have to see how this shakes out.
How is this going to affect the election? I don't know. Is it going to pump up partisans on both sides? I think so. I would think that the Trump side will be more pumped up as I think they believe that they are going to lose ground in the election. But the unfairness and hypocrisy of McConnell and the GOP may turn off some independents. So we will see. The other thing that I worry is that this becomes the main story each day, taking away the important discussions we need regarding the pandemic, the racial divide, foreign relations and the economy. It is going to be a crazy month and a half. Probably much longer because the election results maybe contested long after November 3, and a lame duck Senate may still be deciding a justice nomination into January.
Sounds like it'll come down to the four senators. I wonder how vocal they'll be or if they'll silently tell McConnell what their intentions will be. If he doesn't feel he can get the nominee through, he might just come out and say they'll wait until after the election. Whatever happens, it'll be huge. We won't know the long term effects for years. For Democrats, they better hope that Biden wins in case they decide to try to increase the number of justices.
ReplyDeleteThere are rumors already that Grassly, Merkowski, Collins and Romney have all decided to not vote until after the election. But I am not sure if this is a trusted source.
-LBOAYM
It is going to be a struggle to prevent the GOP from getting this justice position. Graham already is trying to walk back on his promise made in 2016. Grassley is unpredictable. Romney, while would sure like to stick it to Trump and do the right thing, maybe under pressure from the people of Utah to get rid of abortion. Collins will vote no before the election but if she loses, she may vote yes during a lame duck session. Murkowski is not up for election and I believe she is our best bet.
ReplyDeleteI think the Democrats can prevent a confirmation before the election. But if they get a majority in the Senate and Biden wins, the GOP will be desperate and like I said, Collins may change her vote. As I said, Kelley may win the Arizona seat and be sworn in before December. But McConnell may be able to get a vote in before Kelley is sworn in and Pence is there to break a tie. The Democrats will do everything they can to delay things but who knows what may happen.
As for expanding the court, I am sure there are obstacles that must be overcome especially since if the Democrats win the Senate, the margin will be razor thin. And how many new spots can they add? If Trump gets his nominee in, the court will be spit 6-3 in favor of the GOP. To get a Democratic majority, you will need to add 4 justices. Can they go from 9 to 13 justices in one shot?
I believe that the four I mentioned earlier had said before Ginsberg died they would wait, so I don't think this was current except for Murkowski, who I think did come out with a statement. I have to believe that if there are senators who are against voting, will have told or will tell McConnell. So we will know if a vote will be taken or not. We know that Trump will have a candidate ready to go probably next week. So we are looking at hearings sometime in October. Would McConnell tell Trump that he doesn't have the votes? Or do they proceed with the hearings and vote? Trump could use that to his advantage and get his base to come out to vote.
ReplyDeleteThere really should be some grassroots protests in front of McConnell's and Graham's houses but I have yet to see that happen.
-LBOAYM