In the three days I was in Portland, I observed a few things. While it is much smaller than LA and much less diverse (there were very few minorities that I came across), the homeless population and the graffiti reminds me of LA or New York. There were also a lot of businesses in downtown that were boarded up. I was told it was due to the protests and the vandalism in the past year.
It is interesting that with a relatively small minority population, Portland was the site of many and lengthy protests and counter protests. The left and the right squared off in this city. I have not study this so I won't have much to comment. But I do sense that there are a lots of liberals around the city and a lot of conservatives in the rural parts of the state who don't like anything going on in the city.
Unlike LA where it takes a good half hour or more to get out to the suburbs, it takes only a few minutes to leave Portland. But in those few minutes, the world changes dramatically. I find out that the price of homes been surging in the suburbs. I wonder if the people who live in these nice homes think about the homeless problems of the city. Here in Southern California, the city of LA seems like very far away. But in Portland, the distance is not that far but is the reality closer to the minds of the suburbanites? In either case, when is the gap between the haves and have nots explode in our faces?
We found out the Lyft driver who took us to Portland airport is from Afghanistan. He has been in the U.S. for five years but has family that is still in Afghanistan. Obviously he is worried about their safety. He said he is making a decent living and is happy to be in the U.S. But he thinks it was a mistake for the U.S. to go into Afghanistan. He understands about going after the terrorists after 9/11 but he believes that the military actions of the U.S. have caused more deaths and sufferings in the Middle East than the Muslim extremists like the Taliban. I would like a woman's perspective on the Taliban. But I would agree with this driver that you don't advance democracy with guns and bombs. You just cause more suffering and help the extremists recruit more fighters.
One last thing. We saw many homeless people in downtown as mentioned. Many of them had long hair, were unshaved and uncleaned. Then from a distance a clean cut man with glasses riding a bike was coming toward us. A "normal" guy, I thought. But as he passed us, we noticed that he was totally naked! Well. we hardly saw any police in the area. I supposed that they didn't want to deal with the homeless. So I guess this guy didn't think there would be any police stopping him either.
Maybe that guy on the bike is also homeless and sold all his clothes to get a haircut!
ReplyDeleteSo, I hear that the recall for your governor is today. What are your predictions? I think the result will be very close since the polls are always wrong. Does he need 50% or does he need to just have more than the next person?
My friend's wife is voting for recall but I don't know who she is voting for. I personally think the way this is being done is stupid. Why not have just a vote for recall and then if it passes then have a special election? There are too many candidates watering down the process. I don't even know who the top candidate from the GOP side. But he seems to be very controversial. So, if you vote out Newsome and this guy wins, have you really made things better?
-LBOAYM
You are right that the whole recall is stupid. First of all, there is only one year left for Newsome's term. So we are spending hundreds of millions to hold this election so that someone might replace him for one year! But the GOP thinks that given the big majority of Democrats in the state, this is their best chance to win rather than wait till next year. If 50% plus one vote yes, Newsome is out. Then the candidate with the highest vote, even if it is way less than 50%, becomes governor. Newsome cannot be a candidate. With the large field, a candidate with say 5% can be the governor if half of the people don't like Newsome!
ReplyDeleteIf the guy in the lead in the polls, Larry Elder wins, California becomes Florida or Texas in terms of vaccines and mask mandates as his views are similar to those of the governors of those states. Regardless of any other of his positions, which are just as bad, this one alone is enough to make you think that he would make the state worse.
You are right that the result will be closer than the polls which has the No's winning 60%. I think it will be at least 55-45 for the No's though. The No's are pounding the similarity of Elder to Trump, Abbott and DeSantis and this is going to playbook of the Democrats in other elections in 2022 as well. So it better works here. But regardless of the result, the GOP is going to claim it was rigged anyway.
It turns out the polls were correct. The Democrats had mobilized their voters greatly and ended up well above 60% for the no votes. Newsom actually did better than his landslide victory in 2018! Given that some Democrats actually signed the recall petition, it means the attack on Larry Elder being a Trump supporter and the poor COVID responses under GOP governors worked great.
ReplyDeleteCalifornia is a big Democratic state but this resounding victory do have some national implications such as Trump influence and COVID response from the government. Will Republicans in Georgia nominate Hershel Walker for the senate race next year? He has no political office experience and is a Trump supporter like Larry Elder. That will energize the Democratic base in a non-presidential election year. Certainly the GOP must know now that nominating a conservative Black guy is not going to help much, if at all.
Having said that, it is obvious the Trump supporters have taken over the GOP completely. Larry Elder got 45% of the votes among those trying to replace Newsom. The number of votes cast for candidates were only half of those who voted yes or no on the first question. So that means most Democrats didn't even vote on the question of who should replace Newsom. So basically Elder got about most of the GOP votes. The second most vote getter among the Republicans was Kevin Faulconer, the former mayor of San Diego who got only 9%. I don't know much about Faulconer but if can win in San Diego, he has to be somewhat moderate at least. Given his political experience, you would think he would have been the front runner. And he was initially, until Elder jumped into the race and got support from the Trump. So that means a Trump supporter beats a seasoned mainstream politician by a margin of 5 to 1. This is all we need to know about the state of the GOP today.
It is interesting that this Elder guy had so much support. Is it possible that his listeners and Trump supporters were really motivated to vote for him? Is it possible that some Republicans did not vote for him? I had read that Newsome might not have come out victorious if Elder didn't run. That's just an amazing turn of events. So, what does that mean? That the Trump factor works both ways?
ReplyDeleteMy friend, who works for the city of San Diego, didn't care for Faulconer and likes the new mayor. How did Cox do? You know you have too much money and time on your hands when you constantly run for office and lose by a lot!
I am now interested to see how the red states vote (especially the ones with governors that fought mask mandates and vaccines). Will they face backlash or will it be business as usual? My guess is that the ones getting sick now are the ones that were anti-vaccine, so it'll be interesting to see if they change their minds or are OK with getting sick while fighting for their freedoms!
-LBOAYM
Obviously Trump helps his sycophants win the party nominations but hurts them in general election. I think Newsom would have won even if Elder was not in the race. Even at the worst of polling, the no votes were 5 or 6 points ahead. But it did ballooned to almost 30 points when they started attacking Elder as a Trump supporter. Cox only got about 4.5%, about 1/10 of Elder which means that Trump is now the Republican party.
ReplyDeleteI thought your friend is a conservative? Faulconer is a conservative although more mainstream. The current mayor is Democrat, Native American/Filipino and gay. So if your friend likes him better than Faulconer, the only reason would be the Democrat is better for government workers and your friend works for the government.
Red states will still be red but I will be watching Georgia with Hershel Walker, a friend of Trump, see if he can beat Warnock. I noticed that CNN has reported at least 4 conservative radio hosts who have died of COVID recently. They were all anti-vax. So if their followers don't change their minds now, nothing will do it.
My friend and his wife (who was voting for the recall) are both independents. The new mayor in San Diego has really emphasized on boosting pay rates and equality for city employees.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on Woodward's book? I find it funny that Trump is calling it treason and has been saying how the ones that broke into the capitol are being treated unfairly!
-LBOAYM
Obviously I have not read the book and can only go by what I read in the press. Trump is referring to General Milley talking to his Chinese counterpart and reassuring them that there will not be a surprise attack. He had consultation with the Secretary of Defense to be sure the call was ok. If Trump was going to attack China for no reason other than help him stay in power, that would be treason in itself. If Trump was not going to attack, then General Milley has not given any secret to the Chinese so that is not treason. If they want to investigate this whole thing, that is fine by me. I want to see if anyone else besides Milley thought Trump was unstable mentally. I am sure there will be many if they had to testify under oath.
ReplyDeleteThose who attacked the capitol are domestic terrorists. Trump, by siding and inciting them, is a terrorist himself. Also by trying to overturn the election by riots, false information and coercing Pence, I think history will show that Trump committed treason against our country.