Thursday, February 24, 2022

 The war in Ukraine has started.  While it is easy to say this is all the doing of a madman, a brutal dictator or a thug, it would not be totally true.  Putin is all of the above but if we ignore the history that led to all of this, then we are likely to repeat this type of tragedies over and over again.  I am no historian and some of the facts I recall may not be 100% accurate.  I am also writing this as I am thinking about it and so I don't know how many blogs is going take me.  Hopefully this is coherent.

The USSR and the U.S. were allies in WWII along with Western Europe.  Post war the two sides went separate ways.  Just like we were proud of winning the war, the Soviets were proud of their victory.  The U.S. and the Soviets built the two biggest military powers in the world.  Unfortunately, they were no longer allies as they represent two opposite systems.  Both wish to destroy the other's system, believing that they would suffer if the other side wins.  The Soviets were able to match the Americans militarily but they failed miserably economically.  So unlike what Reagan supporters believe, we didn't win the Cold War due to strength.  We won because the USSR self-destructed economically.

So Gorbachev decided to make peace with the West.  The Soviets were going to change their system and try to imitate the West with the help of the West.  Gorbachev believed that if Germany and Japan can rise from the ashes of their defeat in WWII with the help of the West, surely the USSR can do the same.  But the help he needed never came.  Left on its own with poor leaders like Yeltsin, corruption within the government and no previous experience with capitalism, only a few oligarchs became rich.  The rest of the country became even more poor.

So the USSR started to break up.  The Warsaw Pact also collapsed.  The economically weak Russia could not do much to stop the bleeding.  By the time the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania left the bloc, there wasn't much left except for Ukraine and Georgia.

Ukraine was the closest of the former Soviet Republics to Russia.  There were and still are many Russians in Ukraine.  Most people in Ukraine can speak Russian.  Also we look at the map, you can draw a straight line from England to France to Germany to Poland to Ukraine to Russia.  Once Poland became part of the EU, Ukraine is the only buffer between Russia and NATO.  So you can see why Ukraine is so important to Russia.  Before the breakup, Ukraine actually had the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world.  When the deal was made to breakup,  Ukraine wanted continue Russian support and gave back the nuclear weapons.  

Ukraine, however, was split two factions.  Those west side of the country tended to favor Europe but the east side favor Russia.  Meanwhile the EU was snapping up all the countries west of Ukraine.  The EU wanted these countries to join so they can station troops and missile close to Russia, so the Russians reasoned.  The Western Europeans would say that they just want to spread democracy and improve the economic status of the Eastern European countries.  You can be the judge of who is right on this.  I would say that some of these countries are democratic in name only.  Economically, most of them are better off than when the Soviets dominated them but they are not anywhere near Western European level.  I think by incorporating them into the EU, Western Europe just got a source of cheap labor, something the Brits missed out since Brexit.

Well, I digress and getting tired so I will stop for now.  Next will go over how Putin's view on this and how he used it to his advantage and eventually took Crimea.

8 comments:

  1. Anonymous8:53 AM

    I look forward to the rest of the history lesson. Nobody except Putin knows what his end game is. I don't understand why he would purposely go to war or invade another country and possibly ruin his legacy. It is a big gamble. Sure, maybe he gets some more territory to control but at what cost?

    The one element I totally forgot about is Chernobyl and if somehow the Russians would be able to weaponize it somehow and threaten to do so. Apparently, the radiation would only go westward and not eastward into Russia. I find that hard to believe but that's what I have read.

    I also see that China has spoken to Russia with a mild backing by the Chinese and not a full fledged support. It is a difficult situation for China, who is not exactly friendly with Russia. I also wonder if somehow the outcome of this situation will influence what China does with Taiwan in the future.

    -LBOAYM

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  2. If Putin weaponize Chernobyl, it would be a war crime and no way he can whitewash that. I thought his end game would be taking the eastern areas but he is now aiming for Kyiv it looks like. This will be a quagmire for him and for what? Russia certainly don't need more land and they were subsidizing Ukraine before the conflict. So it doesn't make any sense. But Putin and other dictators are not irrational when you analyze them. As I write, I will see if I can come up with some reasonable explanation of what he is doing.

    China is in a difficult situation. It needs an ally to combat the West's obsession with controlling its rise. But it has been against foreign countries trying to split up territories of a country. China will not try to take Taiwan by force unless Taiwan declares it is an independent country. That will be a red line for China. With what is going on in Ukraine, I think the independent advocate in Taiwan, who are a minority, will be more cautious. They have seen that the U.S. and Europe will not send troops to defend Ukraine so what is the likelihood that they will send troops to defend Taiwan when they don't even recognize Taiwan as a country?

    Those are all good points that I will probably go over as I continue to write about this soon.

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  3. Anonymous7:55 PM

    I remember that your favorite show is Dancing with the Stars. I saw that one of the pros was from Ukraine and is there. Apparently he did not like something that Kirstie Alley wrote.

    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/maks-chmerkovskiy-calls-kirstie-alley-170039781.html?ncid=facebook_yahooenter_yxwbqqk7sto&fbclid=IwAR0nFxvF0z4jtJDHwBc8J7HVFRRqAEY3U-QsTdj1QVA1L6f-YbIfWu3sPOA

    -LBOAYM

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  4. I don't understand what Kirstie Alley was trying to say. If she doesn't know what is real and what is fake news, why does she have to announce her ignorance to the world? She could have just said she is praying for the people.

    I can understand why Maks is upset at Alley. She knows darn well that Maks is from Ukraine and she should have reach out to him instead of making a non comment comment in social media. Lots of respect for Maks for risking his life in his home country when he could easily have come back to the safety of the U.S.

    My best friend in high school's parents were Polish and Russian. These two countries were enemies back then but this couple produced 2 wonderful children together. So it is usually not people hating people but political entities making people enemies. By the way, I know there are a lot of eastern Europeans in Michigan area, particularly Polish. Are there a lot of protests there against the war as is happening in California?

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  5. Anonymous6:59 PM

    There was a big rally in Downtown over the weekend but nothing much that has made the news. I don't see how Putin gets out of this without at least losing face. By the way, so we see that there is a huge convoy headed to the capital. Why wouldn't you just bomb it from airplanes? I realize that once the Russians get into the city, it will be hard for them to maneuver but it seems to me that these convoys are sitting ducks. Especially since they are waiting for supplies now. I also didn't understand why the Ukrainians didn't bomb the troops that were at the border. It seems they were concentrated there. Is there some kind of rules of engagement I don't know about?

    -LBOAYM

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  6. I would assume that Ukraine doesn't have the air power that Russia has. So I think the convoy probably has fighter jets covering them. So I would think that Russia must be favored to win the air battle if Ukraine were to send up planes. There was some talk of a no flight zone against the Russians. But that would involve NATO planes possibly fighting Russian planes which I don't think NATO wants to do. I also would guess that hitting convoys with missiles or artillery may not be so accurate and kill civilians and destroy Ukraine's own infrastructure. Now I am thinking they can maybe shut off supply lines after the Russians enter the country so they will be stranded. But the Russians probably thought about that already.

    Now it seems that Maks was trying to leave the country but somehow was arrested and finally released and is on the way to Poland. My guess would be that since all males 18-60 were not allowed to leave so they detained him to make sure he doesn't live there. Hey, he looks to be in good shape despite being probably in his 40s so they can probably use him. But I don't know about any 60 year old guy. I always say that if the rule is that only people over 50 is allowed to fight, there would be a lot less wars.

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  7. Anonymous2:20 PM

    For some reason my reply this morning isn't on here. Must be the Russians trying to silence me!

    One of the things I talked about was that the Ukrainians already destroyed some of their bridges and roads so that it would be harder for the Russians to travel. I also had a link to an article about Maks and how he talked about having PTSD from when he was younger living there and figured he should leave because his mind was not right.

    Anyways, one other thing I came across and maybe this will make you a big fan of Zelensky. He was on your favorite show and won!

    https://www.comicsands.com/ukraine-president-won-dancing-stars-2656818986.html?fbclid=IwAR1cvup7B99DIXoRfyA1EgnXae6tlGo6G6cBYzRDfCdMBQTjxK6hSTQ1vJs

    -LBOAYM

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  8. Yes, I saw Zelensky danced and was quite impressed. But then Kirstie Alley said that she saw Putin scored 18 goals in hockey and Kim Jong Un scored 18 hole in one in a row. So she doesn't know what is real or what is not anymore!

    ReplyDelete

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