Three months into the war in Ukraine and it is obvious that Russia is getting itself into a quagmire. This was predictable given that Russia and the U.S. couldn't win decisively in Afghanistan. As I said before, Ukraine is much more advanced militarily than Afghanistan. Ukraine is also getting a lot of military aid from NATO. So I don't know why Putin started out advancing toward Kiev which the Ukrainians would defend to the death. I thought if he invaded, he would have just try to take the eastern region and declare victory and go home. He may still be doing that but I think now that some in the West has actually predicting that Ukraine may win, Putin may double down to prove those analysists wrong. This will make this whole thing a greater tragedy.
So there are three scenarios how this will play out. One is that Russia wins. Given all the money and arms the West have put in to defend Ukraine, I doubt that will happen. There is no way that Russia will take Kiev and actually run the country.
Unlike some predictions of Western analysists, Ukraine cannot win either. No matter how many men and tanks the Russians lose, they will always have more men and weapons than Ukraine. Ukraine cannot drive the Russians completely out of Ukraine. Russia will likely be stuck holding on eastern parts of Ukraine but cannot move into the western regions near the capital. They may resort to bombing Kiev on and off. In this way, Ukraine technically have not lost but it really isn't functioning as a country and the refugees who have left will neve come back. So Ukraine will never be the same again.
The actual worst scenario to me is if Russia start to lose even in the eastern region. In that case, Putin may use nuclear weapons. When a rat is pinned against the wall, it is going to bite. He may not use Russia's most powerful nuclear weapons but anything nuclear is going to bring massive destruction to Ukraine and kill many more people. And then would NATO and the U.S. retaliate with nuclear weapons? This scenario is unthinkable and I hope it will never come to it.
Regardless, all three possibilities are bad for Ukraine. Diplomatic solution is the only possible way out. Maybe Putin is a madman and that he will not settle for eastern Ukraine. But Zelensky cannot possible believe that even if Ukraine fight to the last man, Ukraine will ever be the same nation as before the war. I don't think the West should encourage Ukraine to fight to the last man.
I've been wanting to respond but haven't had a chance. I wonder how long this war will last without interference from NATO. This could go on for years since the Ukrainians have shown they can hunker down. Sure the nation infrastructure will be destroyed but they might be able to withstand the Russians taking control. The only way I see things ending sooner than later is if Russia and Ukraine agree that Russia can take the Eastern Region.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how much more money can go to Ukraine to help with its fight. At what point do the other countries decide not to send any more money? As I've said before, the US is able to print money with hardly any consequences. As much as I agree that we should send aid, I question the amount of money. Now, if you're going to be sending billions, why not use it domestically? I have been waiting to hear about stimulus checks since it is clear that we are headed to or already in a recession. I think something like stimulus checks would go a long way in helping Biden's approval ratings. It's also understandable that the economy is taking a hit along with inflation and gas prices skyrocketing because of the war. So, why not spend the money at home and give relief to the people who are also effected?
My prediction that the Golden State Warriors heading to the NBA Finals is one step away. However, the Bucks won't be joining them. I was very impressed with the Celtics but without two players, they're going to have a hard time against a pretty good Miami team. It will be interesting to see if Boston can get those guys back before it's too late. I think the Warriors will win in 6. Dallas reminds me of Denver.
-LBOAYM
Spending all that money in Ukraine only prolong the war and benefit the military industrial complex. Over a trillion spent in Iraq and Afghanistan to replace Hussein with a government closer to Iran and to replace the Taliban with the Taliban. It seems our objective here is to weaken the Russians. not to salvage Ukraine as a nation.
ReplyDeleteI have been trying to find out more about the shooter at the Taiwanese church in California. The media keep saying he is mainland Chinese who lived in Taiwan. It seems like a case of mainland Chinese against Taiwanese. But his name is Chou which would be Zhou if he was from the mainland. If your last name is Lee, you or your family was probably from Hong Kong or Taiwan because otherwise your name would be Li. So why are the media so sure he is from mainland but then give no detail when he went to Taiwan and how long he lived there?
Two big actors in the NBA: injuries and three pointers. Bucks lost without Middleton. Celtics are short handed and you are right, they have no chance if those two don't come back soon, as good as Tatum is. Dallas and GS is going to be a shootout. GS has more weapons but an injury can change things quickly. There are no dominating centers like Kareem anymore and so GS can get away with Green as the big man at 6-7 or 8. BTW, the greatest big man in Pistons history, Bob Lanier, died recently. I think he was underrated. If you look back, you will find he played Kareem pretty even during his career, something no other big man can claim.
Performing like the old days when he was president, George W. Bush shows he still is a gaffe machine. In a speech about democracy, he said that our system, despite its flaws, works pretty well. This is contrast to Russia where a single madman can make the decision to invade Iraq. He quickly corrected himself that he meant Ukraine. This was a Freudian slip if I ever heard one.
ReplyDeleteIn addition he also praised Zelensky being the Churchill of his country. He said Ukraine is democratic and Zelensky was freely elected. That may be so but I think Bush and other politicians forget or never knew that Ukraine had a democratically elected president name Yanukovych who was pushed out of office in 2013 with the help of the West because he refused to join the EU. Yanukovych was replaced without an election at that time.
By the way, wasn't it W. who said that he looked into the eyes of Putin and peer into his soul and find him trustworthy?