Vicious Rants of an Angry Yellow Man

 Now that Nancy Pelosi has left Taiwan, here is some of my takes on the subject.

I still don't know why she decided to go after being warned by the military and Biden that this was a very bad idea.  You don't become a leader in the U.S. government without being pragmatic.  Certainly human rights issue is not consider a pragmatic part of our foreign policy.  Witness Biden kowtowing to the Saudis.  Even if she is really concerned about human rights, going to Taiwan is not going to help the democracy of the Taiwanese people.

Some people say that she is going to distract the problems of her husband and that they have investments in semiconductors which is dominated by Taiwan's TSMC.  I don't think her trip is helping in regarding to both.  Certainly if it provokes China, the semiconductor business throughout the world will be affected.  Prices may go up initially but if war breaks out TSMC will be destroyed and the whole industry will be decimated, as will all of tech sectors because the reliance on chips in the world.

I do think that like all politicians in the U.S., she is beholden to the military industrial complex.  Just tension from the possibility of war is enough to help the industry earn more profit.  So there is call in both sides of the aisle to support Taiwan like Ukraine.  No regard for the fact that by pushing Putin into war, Ukraine will be destroyed even if the war is a stalemate.  Same thing will happen to Taiwan.  No American troops will go into Taiwan if war breaks out.  Taiwanese and Chinese people will die.  But that is not the concern of American hawks and their industry benefactors.

Propaganda is already all over Western media.  CNN had a retired admiral who said that 70% of Taiwanese want independence.  True fact is that only 10% want independence now.  Overwhelming majority want the status quo.  I can guaranteed practically nobody in Taiwan want to fight a war to gain independence.  Certainly not those who are eligible to be drafted into the military.

Also propaganda is that Pelosi can go anywhere she wants.  Taiwan is a separate country.  Newt Gringrich went to Taiwan as Speaker 25 years ago.  But Taiwan is not a separate country.  This fact is recognized by 180 countries, including the U.S.  It would be like the third ranking Chinese leader go to Texas and meet with the people who want to secede from the U.S.  Newt was member of the opposing party to then President Clinton.  So his visit is not considered an official position of the U.S. government.  Coming after the Biden gaffe that the U.S. will protect Taiwan from attack, you can see that this visit is a provocation to China and goes against the Shanghai Communique.

So what is the response from China.  It would seem that Xi is losing face by doing nothing except military exercises.  I certainly did not believe that China would shoot down the plane or force it to land.  That would start a war.  Xi has to be measured in his response.  If you look at  the plans for the military exercises, they are planned to surround all sides of Taiwan.  It is a demonstration that at any time Taiwan can be blockaded.  As an island, Taiwan depends on lots of imports.  So any blockade would be problematic.  China does not need to invade.  Now, is the U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan going into the same area during the exercise?  That would be more tension and more danger.  Accidents happen during training and adversaries being close together is making accidents more likely.

Even if Xi loses face because the people in China believe the response is not strong enough, he will get his third term.  Being a one party country, China can look at long term.  Eventually China will catch up to the U.S. and Taiwan will be reunified with the motherland.  This is Xi and others' thinking.  So this will not hurt them too much.  

Pelosi and the Democrats just committed an unforced error.  By telegraphing she is going, she had no choice but to go because the GOP already said that if she does not go, it shows weakness.  But having gone, Trump already accused Pelosi of causing chaos.  Same with Tucker Carlson.  I am sure even those who egged her on to go will not say the trip is stupid and that Biden cannot control his own party.  So even politically, I think it is a loss for Pelosi and the Democrats.

So it was a stupid thing to do and I don't know what Pelosi is thinking.  Nobody wins except for the military industrial complex.  The only good thing is that WWIII did not happen.