Vicious Rants of an Angry Yellow Man

I am sticking with my prediction from a few weeks ago that unless Obama makes a huge mistake, he will win the nomination. My math was a little off last time but the conclusion is still the same. Even with her victory in Ohio and Texas, Clinton cannot win the nomination even if she wins Pennsylvania as expected. Even if she wins all the remaining states by 10% point each she will be behind on pledge delegates. And there is no way she will win them all, certainly not by 10% point each. As I said before if the super delegates throw the nomination to her with Obama ahead in pledge delegates, then the Democrats will lose the black vote and the election. I think all the Democratic leaders understand this point.

The 3 a.m. ad was credited with helping Clinton win Texas and Ohio. If it did then we have more morons in the Democratic party than I thought. I can understand that some people think that Clinton is more experienced but if someone had not thought of that before the ad, why would he think that after the ad? Just because someone says that she is more capable of handling a crisis, it does not make it true. If experience alone gives you better judgment, then McCain would be better than Clinton by that logic. This would come back to haunt her if she wins the nomination. I always said that Obama is a little green and going against the war from the beginning does not mean that he will be great in foreign policies. But the truth is that one positive record is better than a negative for Clinton. And it is much better than the poor judgment McCain has shown in this war. So I would be dismayed if this ad actually hurt Obama significantly.

I think a legitimate reason to vote against Obama last week was the story of an adviser talking to the Canadian officials about NAFTA. I think that both Clinton and Obama are wrong to speak out against NAFTA. I don't think either one would do much to it if elected. They were just saying what people in Ohio want to hear. But it is a huge mistake for Obama if he had sent a representative to the Canadians. He is not the president and had no reason to talk to foreigners about policies that he is not enacting now. He did not have to placate Canada. If he did not send the consultant, then he is guilty of not controlling his staff well. That is not a major minus but a minus nevertheless. Unlike the 3 am ad which was a negative tactic by Clinton, the Canadian episode was Obama campaign's own doing. This was not fatal but if he makes a worse mistake then it gives the Democratic establishment a cover to give the nomination to Clinton by saying that Obama is just too inexperienced for the general election.

A good thing for Obama is that if he comes out of this and play mistake free ball for the rest of the primary season he will win the nomination and be toughened up for the general election. People believe that this long fight for the nomination will hurt the Democrats. I think if Obama turns out to be the nominee, this long fight would actually help him against McCain. The Clintons are formidable politicians and they will hit hard. Obama needs to be tested against the best and if he survives it, he can handle on what the Republicans will throw at him. If Clinton wins with the super delegates and negative ads, then I think she will lose the general election. Even before this long fight Clinton was loved by 50% and hated by 50% of the people. Losing the black vote will doom her. And forget about the dream ticket. It is difficult enough to elect a black or a woman. To have both on the ticket may sound interesting but the country is not ready for that.