Thursday, October 28, 2010

The pundits are all talking about whether the control of Congress will change hands with this coming election. Everybody is making predictions about the outcome. I am going to make the prediction that the result won't matter. Whether the Republicans win one, none or both chambers, we will have complete gridlock over the next two years. Every politician says that he/she will create jobs, change Washington etc. But nothing important will happen no matter who wins.

Things are so partisan now that even with overwhelming majority in both chambers by the Democrats plus Obama in the White House, it was difficult to pass any significant bill. Even if the Republicans win both chambers, they won't have much of a majority, certainly nowhere near able to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. Even if they pass a bill, say repealing the Healthcare bill, Obama will just veto it. So the Republicans won't be able to do anything. Even if the Democrats retain majority in both chambers, they are going to be a lot weaker than before and they certainly are not able to bring out any big bill that will get any Republcian support. So I predict that the next two years we will have a do nothing but bickering Congress. There is nothing legislative wise that Obama can do. He will get re-elected if the economy makes a spectacular recovery. Short of that unlikely scenario, he will need either a big improvement in Afghanistan and/or some progress in the Israel-Palestinian negotiation. Even if he has a great economic stimulus plan that he just thought of, there is no way it can pass Congress and will not have worked in two years anyway. So Obama's fate will basically depend on luck, just as any other president.

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