Sunday, November 04, 2012
Well, it is 2 days left. Time for my forecast. It is no secret that there are only a few states that are up for grabs. They are: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Iowa. Out of these I will say that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are going to go to Obama. This will leave Obama with 247 votes needing 23 more. I will give Florida and Virginia to Romney giving him 248. So this leaves Ohio with 18, Colorado with 9 Nevada and Iowa with 6 each and New Hampshire with 4. I predict that Obama will sweep these states and finish with 290. So it is possible for Obama to win without winning Florida or Ohio (although not very likely). But Romney must sweep these two and add New Hampshire to his column to win. Does my math look correct? What is your prediction?
3 comments:
Use the following html code to make a clickable link in your comment (instructions in the sidebar). You can test the link by previewing your comment.
<a href="http://angryyellowman.blogspot.com">Angry Yellow Man</a>
The above example will display as Angry Yellow Man
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
I've been pretty confident that Obama will win for a while now, but every time I see the poll numbers, it's a lot closer than I think. Maybe the polls are wrong. According to the polls, he has a decent lead in Ohio and I think if he wins Ohio, he has a great chance to win.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised that it's close in Florida too. There were thoughts that Hurricane Sandy would effect the election. What do you think? I don't know how the NY/NJ region would have voted for either candidate.
To sum up, I am in agreement with you. Hopefully we will know early in the evening to call it.
-LBOAYM
I don't think Sandy made any difference anywhere except maybe Virginia. Minorities may have a harder time to vote there given the damage due to the storm. That is why I give Romney the edge there. New York and New Jersey are in Obama's camp so I don't think this will change anything. I think if Obama would have just stayed in the Midwest and made sure he wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Ohio it would have been enough.
ReplyDeleteI think that it will be too close to call by midnight in the eastern time zone. Maybe before midnight in the west it will be over. If not then I think it will drag over to the next day or maybe beyond. There is a scenario where they tie 269-269 in which case the House decides the president and senate decides the vp. Then we would have an administration of Romney and Biden!
Well, I was wrong. Obama wins before midnight on the east coast! It looks like the Democrats will retain the senate and the Republicans will hold on to the House. So nothing really changed after this election.
ReplyDeleteI want to see what people like Rush Limbaugh and Newt Gingrich have to say about their predictions. Everyone think this was going to be close and most think Obama will win but these two predicted big wins for Romney with over 300 electoral votes! Rush did hedge his bet by saying that he had a bad feeling even though "intellectually" he thinks Romney will win big. Well as we all know Rush has a bigger gut than brain so that explains the contradiction. A lot of Republicans will blame Romney but they should blame the tea party and extreme conservatives. They only had to turn around 4 seats in the senate to take control and with the economy and the number of seats the democrats had to defend, it should have been an easy task. But they probably end up losing seats because they voted out moderates like Lugar and put in place extreme conservatives. They forced Romney to lean way right to win his primary and made it difficult for him in the general election. He was their best candidate. People like Gingrich and Santorum would have been beaten so bad that we would not have bothered to stay up tonight to watch.
It is also interesting to see some Republican pundits on Fox and CNN who say that now that Obama is reelected and won't ever run again, he can go against his own base and reach across the aisle. These are the same people who said that Obama will turn this into a socialist country! Well, I do hope he reaches across the aisle because there are some good ideas among the Republican moderates. But the Republicans will have to reach across also because they can't make defeating Obama their number one priority anymore. They will have to give something, for example, if they want to maintain the Bush tax cut because if not, Obama will just let it expired. So hopefully there will be some cooperation, just don't hold your breath yet!