After I had said that North Korea did not post much of a threat, Kim Jong Un started to cause problems by putting North Korea in a state of war preparation. That would seem counter to my claim that secular dictators are not irrational and their first priority is to survive and keep power. Kim's action does appear irrational, trying to pick a fight with the most powerful country in the world. It is possible that he is crazy and thus throw out all of my theory. But it is not likely the case. His father also had seem to be crazy at times. But each time he threatened, he was just trying to get concession from the U.S. Kim Jong Il also had at least 3 sons so if Jong Un is really crazy, I don't think he would have been picked as the successor.
I think that being so young and being the third generation dictator, there is a lot of pressure to show that he is tough enough for the job. There may even be some possibility of someone planning a coup. If Kim knew about such threat, the best way to prevent it is to rev up nationalism and making himself look tough and capable of leading. Certainly having been educated in Europe, he can't possibly think that he can win a war. But if, like his father before him, he is able to get some concession, then his hold on power will be stronger.
The U.S. should act calmly. We should put more military power into the region but do not sound threatened. I think eventually China will get through to Kim behind close doors. China has great interest in keeping the peace because a war would destabilize the region. War would also likely destroy North Korea. Even though North Korea is an unreliable ally, China gains leverage with the U.S. by being North Korea's main benefactor. China also does not want war refugees coming over the border. Most importantly a war would mean greater U.S. involvement in the region. This will increase American influence in Asia and make China's goal of becoming the dominant power in Asia much more difficult to achieve. So China will make some assurance to Kim about his survival and convince him to pull back.
Thursday, April 04, 2013
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Hey, aren't you the same guy that said that the U.S. should take troops out of the region?
ReplyDeleteIf they had done it, there would be no forces to help South Korea.
I wonder if the SCUD missiles would be able to knock any missiles the North would launch. Can you imagine the shame it would cause for Kim Jong Un if he was unable to strike the South?
So really, I agree with you that he is posturing here. There had been talk about unrest and yes, this is a way to show might.
One thing I'll never understand about dictators. I would want my people to love me and to provide them the best of life. I would not want to force them to like me or make them have poor living conditions.
What kind of legacy does that leave?
I am surprised that you did not have a Final Four prediction. You must be busy with visiting relatives!
I predict Louisville and Syracuse to make it. And since Louisville is the overwhelming favorite, I will pick Syracuse to win it all on Monday.
Though when I come back to your blog on Monday, things could have changed. And I will have to make new picks!
-LBOAYM
I stand by having less or no trips in South Korea. The south is capable of fending off a north ground attack. If the north decides to use nuclear weapons then our troops would be just in harms way. We can attack with nuclear weapons from anywhere. We do not have to be there.
ReplyDeleteI will be a homer and predict that M will be Syracuse and then Louisville for the championship!