I think it would be a mistake for Biden to get into the race now. Clinton did well during the debate and I don't think that Biden or anyone else can take the nomination from her. If she had stumbled during the debate then Biden may have had an opening. But she did not stumble so if Biden gets in now he would lose badly. Then if a big scandal comes out on Clinton that forces her out, Biden would not be looked upon as a savior if he had lost whole bunch of primaries. I think the only chance for Biden is to stay out and be a good soldier for the party. Then if something happens to Clinton, then he would be coming in unscathed.
It is funny that Trump blames Bush for 9/11. I don't think he understands the world and why things happen. But if he wants to blame his own party, go ahead. I wonder if he blames FDR for Pearl Harbor! But Jeb defends his brother by saying that he kept us safe. How? By going into Iraq before finishing the job in Afghanistan?
Can the GOP elect a new Speaker? Moderates like Paul Ryan doesn't want the job and I don't see how the 40 or so rebels in the House can elect one of their own. More dysfunction up ahead!
Sunday, October 18, 2015
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So, if something comes out that forces Clinton out, that means Sanders will get the nomination, since Biden won't be able to run after the deadline, right?
ReplyDeleteI never considered Paul Ryan a conservative. Doesn't he have a lot of Tea Party support? You are right about the dysfunction. This is what happens when you have a group (Tea Party) that has too much power in your group.
-LBOAYM
No, if Clinton is way ahead when a big scandal hits, Sanders may not be the nominee. The primaries serves to get a candidate votes at the convention but also show whether one has the ability to attract voters in the general election. So if Sanders or Biden are getting killed by Clinton, then the votes that were committed to Clinton from the primaries may not necessary go to either one. So say Clinton has two thousand delegate votes from the primary. If Clinton is out, those delegates can vote for anyone they want at the convention. So if Sanders only got 25% of primary delegates at that point, he may never get to 51% to win the nomination. That is why I think Biden should not run now since he will lose to Clinton, maybe badly. Then he won't get the Clinton votes either at the convention. But if he is not running, then the delegates may decide that he is more viable than a badly beaten Sanders and thus nominate Biden at the convention.
ReplyDeleteRyan is more conservative than Romney but he is nowhere near the Tea Party level. That is why he does not want to be beholden to the Tea Party members. The Tea party people would not vote for him unless he agree to do what they want. So it is a stalemate so far. If Ryan is considering a run for the presidency in the future, there is no upside for him to be Speaker. After running a dysfunctional Congress, he will never win a presidential election. Although as Speaker, he would be second in line after the vp.