Unless you are Fox News, there are two ways you can look at the Trump/Kim summit: Nothing came out of it or Kim slaughtered Trump. If you are Fox News, of course, you would say Trump did a historic thing and should get the Nobel peace prize. Of course, you would be the same people who went crazy at candidate Obama for saying that he would meet the dictator of North Korea. You would also be the ones who said that you can't make deals with the human rights abusers of Cuba and Iran. So I guess Trump deserves the Nobel for making concessions to the enemy of Obama right after trashing Obama's friend Justin Trudeau. Also great that Trump want to bring Russia back to the G7 and that he refused to sign the G7 communique!
The so called agreement signed by Trump and Kim basically says nothing. The so called denuclearization was already agreed to by Kim to president Moon of South Korea in April. It was also agreed to by his father many years ago. It can be broken with a snap of the finger. Nothing about verifiable or irreversible that Pompeo had demanded. There was nothing about biologic or chemical weapons nor about missiles that North Korea is amassing. There was nothing about human rights or the Japanese citizens kidnapped by North Korea. So basically we got nothing from this meeting. OK, you may say this is a beginning and that it is great to open dialogue with your enemy. But then why did the GOP and Fox excoriated Obama for saying he would meet with the leader of North Korea without preconditions? In this case, there was no precondition before the summit and no condition during the summit as well.
What is worse that afterwards, Trump said that we will stop join military exercises with South Korea, calling them war games. This is precisely what North Korea and China wanted. Does this mean the beginning of the end of the alliance with South Korea? Did Trump consult his ally South Korea before making the announcement? I doubt it. In fact, I don't think he consulted with his security advisors before making the announcement. You think John Bolton or Pompeo would have gone for that? There is nothing in return for this. A total unforced error.
The winners are obvious. Kim gets his spotlight on the global stage, in equal footing with the U.S. president. Instead of being viewed as a murderous dictator, he was a rock star in Singapore. He is going to get an invite to the White House. He gave up nothing. He gets a weakening of the South Korea/U.S. alliance. While sanctions from the U.S. is not ending yet, China and Russia will sure get rid of their sanctions, reasoning that North Korea has reached an agreement with the U.S. China is an obvious winner. Kim met with Xi in advance of the summit. They must have put their minds together to what they want. Kim even came to Singapore on a Chinese jet. China will be thrilled if the U.S. decrease their military presence in the Korean peninsula. It would help China control the western Pacific if that is the case.
The losers are South Korea and Japan. Both had very little say in this summit despite it was the work of Moon. There was nothing about human rights and the kidnapped people from these countries. They are still vulnerable to North Korea missiles. They must be wondering if the U.S. can be a trusted ally. While Trump enjoyed his spot in the limelight and must felt good about the ratings, his lack of preparation shows. He will boast that he made history but unless Pompeo is the greatest negotiator of all time, Trump will be harshly criticized in history.
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
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ABC had a decent interview with Trump. I started to wonder if there are any details to this deal or if POTUS even knows what the deal contains. Though I am willing to give both sides a chance on this. I am hopeful for peace between the two Koreas. At some point, a step in the right direction has to happen. I also think that Kim has tasted what other countries outside of his own have and maybe he sees that the ways of his family have been wrong all these years. Time will tell, but it's weird that Kim gets an invite to the White House and NFL players don't.
ReplyDelete-LBOAYM
A tiger does not change his stripes. You don't go from being a brutal dictator who kills thousands of his people including his brother and uncle in order to stay in power to a peace maker. Kim will not give up his nukes because that is how he got to the table and spotlight in the first place. Nukes are what guarantee his survival. This is reinforced by Bolton who said that Libya can be a blueprint. This just made Kim more convinced that he needs to keep some nukes as a deterrent. In fact, what happens here may become a blueprint for other dictator to get nukes as a deterrent and gain legitimacy. Why not follow what Kim did and the U.S. will forget about your atrocities?
ReplyDeleteI do believe that Kim is a rational dictator. Having been educated in the west, he does understand that he has to change the way the country is ruled. That is why he has allowed some free markets in the country. I think he would never use nukes unless he is attacked first. So it is possible, if played correctly, that things can be more stable. For example, he can be convinced to get rid of some bombs and not make more. He may also stopped testing missiles. In return, he gets economic aid and security guarantees. He may go for this but there will be no chance that we will have total denucleariztion that is verifiable and irreversible as Pompeo insisted.
The way I see it, the negotiations will drag on. There maybe some announcements of success such as North Korea getting rid of the bombs and blowing up some facilities in exchange for loosening of sanctions and American aid. But they will not come up with a better deal than the Iran deal that Trump just blew up. They will not be able to verify as they were able to in Iran. Even if Iran was to cheat, they are not successful until they are able to test their bomb. Then the whole world knows they cheated. North Korea already successfully tested many bombs, they can secretly make more and don't have to test them. You can't get rid of their knowledge. There is no way to put the genie back into the bottle.
I agree with you on the knowledge of making the bomb. I also think that the two nuclear deals are very different and the circumstances were different as well. You are right, we may never know if Kim has destroyed all his facilities unless a UN or US team scours the country. Will that happen? Does it matter? If he has the knowledge, why not destroy them all. He can always rebuild buildings, bunkers and silos.
ReplyDeleteI get a sense though that he has gotten a taste of what the outside world is like. He might have been a product of his family and didn't know any better. Maybe he can change. Remember that he is still young. There are reports that he wants to build up his country like Vietnam did after the war. I think he's got to convince South Korea and Japan first. It seems to me that South Korea is proceeding the right way.
I did find it amusing that Trump spoke of ending the War Games because it would save money. However he is planning a military parade? As neat as it would be to see, that money would be better spent on Veterans affairs or helping current troops.
-LBOAYM