This is the 5th installment of the Russian Ukraine War. I must say that after writing all these installments that I have not come up with the exact reason why Putin attack at this time. Perhaps there are multiple factors. The Time magazine article imply that the arrest of Putin's friend Medvedchuk may be the spark that started the war. Maybe, but obviously there were many steps that led to the invasion. So we look at some of these steps.
Georgia may have been a model of what could have happened to Ukraine. As we talked about previously, Georgia and Ukraine were both going to be the next countries to join NATO. But in 2008, Russia beat up Georgia and basically took over separatists regions of that country. No talk of Georgia joining NATO after that. So perhaps the West and Ukraine could have learned that lesson and just let Ukraine be neutral and avoid a similar or worse fate than Georgia.
But there didn't happen. We left off with Russia annexing Crimea in 2014. Russia also helped a separatist movement in the Donbas region of Ukraine. Basically a civil war broke out in 2014. It has never ended. Couple of times there were cease fire but fighting resumed or never stop despite the agreements. Ukraine refused to concede the separatist region and kept attacking periodically. But it was not able to make any progress. Putin, occupied with troubles at home and waging a war in Syria, did not help the separatists advance either. So it was pretty much a stalemate until 2021.
As mentioned Medvedchuk was arrested in 2021. Also Ukraine started using Turkish made drones to attack the separatists. These drones have been quite effective, even against Russian forces in the war today. NATO was also more aggressive, flying near the Russian border. Also Ukraine had since the Russian annexation of Ukraine, have shut off water from the North Crimean Canal which had supplied 90% of fresh water to Crimea in the past. So the agriculture of Crimea suffered greatly and the Russians have been having more and more trouble trying to supply Crimea with fresh water. In fact, one of the first things the Russians did after the invasion was blew up the dam that blocked the water going to Crimea. So all these may have been factors that made Putin believe it was time to invade.
I also think that with the U.S. leaving Afghanistan in such a disgraceful manner gave Putin the idea that the U.S. cannot organize NATO in a cohesive response. Or he may have thought that Biden, having been humiliated with the withdrawal from Afghanistan, will want to show that he is tougher than Trump on Russia. So maybe it was now or it will be too late once Biden gets things organized.
So Putin tried to test Biden by asking that NATO put it in writing that Ukraine will never be part of NATO. Biden, on the other hand, could not be looked upon as weak after Afghanistan, refused. So both sides are pinned to a corner and the Ukrainians are going to be the big losers of this big power politics.
I heard today that Ukraine might agree to not join NATO as part of negotiations. This would probably end the war and give Putin an out. Maybe at some point Ukraine can make an alliance with the surrounding NATO countries and call it an Eastern Europe Alliance or something. I also understand that we are supposed to send a bunch of arms to Ukraine. I wonder how fast that takes and the logistics to get them into Ukraine. I don't think you can fly them in. So maybe they are flown into Poland and there's a supply line that the Russians can't get to. I don't know.
ReplyDelete-LBOAYM
If Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO stops the war, it would be great. But isn't that what Putin asked in the first place to not invade? So by telling Ukraine that it can join NATO and Ukraine liking the idea, it led to destruction of big parts of Ukraine, killing lot of people and causing a refugee crisis. Maybe Putin would have invaded anyway but it seems to me the whole thing could have been avoided. I will have a blog next week about what we have learned from this.
ReplyDeleteThere is no point of an Eastern Europe Alliance. Siding with the likes of Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic won't make Ukraine more safe. If Russia attacks these countries, then NATO will have to intervene which obviously they don't want to. I don't see any good of getting the big bear next door to you mad.
The weapons can get there but it will take time. But it will never match the firepower of the Russians. This is just a way showing that we are supporting Ukraine. The extra arms may hurt the Russians but it won't help the Ukrainians much. Don't you notice how quickly both parties will agree to fund the Ukraine war effort and give Ukraine arms? But to appropriate money for our own country takes a long time or never gets done at all because both parties cannot agree.