This is the fourth installment of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Having annexed Crimea and backed the separatist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, it seemed like Putin had stopped NATO from taking in Ukraine as a member. While there were scrimmages in the following years, things seem to somewhat stabilize. So what made Putin decide to invade? There are views that he got bad intelligence reports and that made him believe that he can easily win. There are views that he got bad advice from his inner circle. But Putin is not Bush. He is way too savvy to be led down the path by the Russian equivalents of Cheney, Rumsfeld and Neocons. An interesting point was brought up in Time magazine Feb.14-21 issue. This was something new I read and had not come across before. So I will give a summary of this article.
The article talks about Viktor Medvedchuk, an Ukrainian oligarch and politician. Medvedchuk and Putin are close friends. Putin is the god-father of Medvedchuk's daughter. According to Time, Medvedchuk's party is the biggest opposition force in the parliament of Ukraine. He is the leading voice for Russian interests in Ukraine. This is important since after the annexation of Crimea and taking over of the Donbas region, there are less and less pro-Russian people voted into the Kyiv government. So short of going to war, the best way for Putin to influence Ukraine was through Medvedchuk and his party.
The U.S. was well aware of pro Russia oligarchs in Ukraine. Many of them were sanctioned by Obama in 2014, and Medvedchuk was on the top of list of those sanctioned. Nevertheless by 2018 these oligarchs had formed an alliance called Opposition Platform-For Life and Medvedchuk was the party chairman. These oligarchs owned three television network in Ukraine. They made life miserable for Zelensky's government, especially hammering its response to COVID.
So in February of 2021, shortly after Biden had taken office, Zelensky's government took the opposition television networks off air. This was with the blessing of the Biden administration. Shortly after that, Ukraine announced that it had seized the assets of Medvedchuk's family, including a pipeline that brings Russian oil to Europe. In May, Medvedchuk was charged with treason and placed under house arrest. Recently, the U.S. accused him of plotting to stage a coup, similar to what the Russians had accused the U.S. of doing back in 2014.
Putin responded by sending 3,000 troops to the Ukraine border right after Ukraine took his friend's assets. That was the first of many moves that eventually led to over 100,000 troops to the border and then the invasion. I don't know if Putin started the process of war because of what he felt as injustice to his friend. But I do think that having his one big influencer in Ukraine silenced, he probably thought that there was no path to keep Ukraine out of NATO short of war.
That Time article is interesting. So, maybe he's invading and trying to take control of Ukraine so that he can rescue his friend and bring his friend's party to power. Do you think Zelensky will be killed or imprisoned once the Russians capture Kyiv? Seems like it's only a matter of time unless something happens. Now, if I were Zelensky, I would move to a secret location before he is trapped. But maybe he will go down as a Martyr. What about his wife? I heard she is with him as well.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, how big is the Russian army? I am assuming the 100k that is in Ukraine is a fraction of what they have. Otherwise, could Ukraine launch an offensive into Russia while it's guard is down? What is stopping a secret Ukraine from sneaking into Moscow and taking out Putin? I know it sounds far fetched, but I have not heard anything about this.
-LBOAYM
If Zelensky refused to be captured, he will be killed. He will be a martyr. I guess he is braver than Yanokovych who fled to Russia. I don't know about his wife and family. Medvedchuk was under house arrest and his family was still in Kyiv when the article came out. I wonder what his fate is or will be. If Russia captures Kyiv, I am sure the Ukrainians won't let him live. I don't think Putin would trade cease fire for him.
ReplyDeleteI don't know how big the Russian army is but I am sure it is close to a million men, if not more. Russia is still the second most powerful military in the world and Ukraine is nowhere near Russia in terms of men and fire power. I am sure they can defend better than the Taliban but they won't be able to mount a counteroffensive. As for assassination, I would think there are more Russian operatives in Ukraine than the other way around. So I would think Zelensky is in far more danger than Putin.