Vicious Rants of an Angry Yellow Man

With the election coming up next Tuesday, I am going out on a limb and predict that the Democrats will win control of the House and the Republicans will still retain the control of the Senate by the slimmest of margins, ie one seat. You would think that with the situation in Iraq, the multiple scandals in Congress, the large deficit and poor approval ratings of the President as well as the Congress; that the party in control of Congress would get slammed. In reality, even though the Democrats will gain during this election it would not be as big of a defeat for the Republicans as you would imagine given the problems they have had in the past two years.

The truth is most Congressional seats are in safe districts. While most people believe that the government is doing a poor job, they have better feelings about their own Congressman. With all the pork that the incumbents bring back to their states, it is hard for challengers to unseat them. Add to the polarization between liberals and conservatives who would not vote for the other side even if their own candidate is poor, many seats are safe for both sides. Even the seat vacated by Duke Cunningham in San Diego went back to a Republican after he resigned because of bribes. Even though all 435 seats in the House are up for reelection, less than 10% are competitive. This makes it difficult for the minority party to win back control. In the Senate it is even more difficult because only one third of the seats are up for reelection every two years. It looks like the best the Democrats can hope for is that they end up having to win two out of three between the seats in Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee to get the six turnovers they need to get control of the senate. I don't think they can get two out those three.

If the two houses are split we will have more logjam in Congress. Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker and with her ultra-left credentials, there will be no agreements between the two sides. In the long run it will help the Republicans because the Democrats will have to share more of the blame for the lack of ability of Congress to get anything done. Losing the House will also force the Republicans to work harder for 2008. Basically the Democrats have no good ideas of their own, they are just gaining because the Republican scandals and incompetence of th Bush administration in the Iraq war. Unfortunately I don't see more centrist politicians with common sense taking control of the government no matter which side wins.