Vicious Rants of an Angry Yellow Man

The news of huge protests of the election in Iran would seem on the surface what the U.S. wants. Following the victory by the pro-western faction in Lebanon, it seems like the tide may be turning in the Middle East. I would caution against such optimism. It is true that Ahmadinejad is reeling with the widespread protest. But this is not a democracy and eventually I think the government will be able to kill the protest just as China did 20 years ago. And while we think that Ahmadinejad's opponents are pro-U.S. I am not sure that is so. Most of the protest is the result of poor economic performance by the government and if Obama tries to inflame the situation it can backfire. Ahmadinejad can use the argument that the U.S. is trying to bring down Iran and nationalism may trump economics.

But even if Ahmadinejad eventually gets thing back under control, the fact that he had to cheat (he may have won without cheating but obviously he did cheat), is going to weaken him. If the U.S. and Israel do not upset the Iranians, Ahmadinejad's days as president will be numbered. Ironically I think if he stays in power the U.S. have a better opportunity to progress diplomatically than if he loses power. This is because the opposition will be seen by the clerics and the people in the rural areas as being influenced by the west. Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, is a hardliner and may think that being little more moderate may quiet down some of his enemies. So will see how this plays out.

As to how long the stalemate is going to continue, I have an idea that everyone is going to dismiss as absurd. I think it will depend on the soccer match between Iran and South Korea tommorrow. If Iran upsets South Korea on the road and somehow qualifies for the world cup, it will give the government a boost as people will run into the street to celebrate and decrease the protestors' volume. This will make it easier for the government to crackdown and disperse the protestors. If Iran loses, then this may run for a much longer time because everybody will be in a foul mood, even more so than before due to economic hard times. This will bring out more people to protest the government. I know it sounds absurd but don't underestimate the power of soccer in the world outside the U.S.