Just returned from a vacation to visit my 7 months old grandson.  It was a lot of fun to see and play with him.  But back to reality.  I just saw this article in CNN where the life expectancy of the U.S. has declined by more than two and a half years since the pandemic started.   To put into perspective, a change of a few tenths in a year is very unusual.  The current life expectancy of Americans stand at 76 years, the lowest since 1996.

Half of the decline is due to COVID.  The second largest cause of the decline in drugs.  The sad thing is that both of these causes could have been mitigated.  They are both unforce errors by us and the leaders of our government.  While American Indians had the worst decline among all ethnic groups, no group is spared.  Whites, for example, had the least decline in 2020 but had the second highest decline in 2021, worse than Blacks and Hispanics.  I think this is because Whites had the best health care and got in line first for the vaccines so they did better in the beginning.  But in the past year, Whites are among the worst of the anti-vaxxers.  They are also the most likely to call for freedom of not wearing masks in crowded public places and opening up of everything.  Advantages forfeited.

I have always said that the first freedom, in my opinion, is the freedom to be alive.  No freedom if you are six feet under.  Asian Americans did the best among the ethnic groups in these past two years.  I think many Asian Americans came from countries where individual freedom is not as important as the well being of the whole society.  I think if you live in Idaho or Wyoming, it may not make much difference what you do.  But if you live in crowded places like LA or NY, I think there is a responsibility to make it safer for each other.  I won't waste my breath here ranting about the ineptitude of our government in the pandemic, opioid crisis and mass gun shootings.  Too many unforced errors to talk about!

 The FBI raided Trump's Mar-A-Lago estate.  Supposedly, there were documents that Trump took from the White House that should not be taken out.  I don't know if they can find any of these since Trump would have had plenty of warning that the Justice department was looking for these things and he could have disposed of them before the raid.  Maybe down the toilet?  But in any case, the justice department felt it was important enough to get warrant for the raid and they did carry it out.

Of course, Trump and the GOP are up at arms over the raid.  Saying this is all political and the Justice department and the FBI are doing the work of the Democrats.  But the judge who signed the warrant was appointed by Trump.  The director of the FBI was also appointed by Trump.  So it is absurd to say this is just the work of Trump's enemy.  Of course this argument doesn't prevent the GOP from calling for defunding the FBI!  Who is against law enforcement now/

During a deposition, Trump answered only one question:  his name.  He pleaded the Fifth to every other question.  What was that he said about those who plead the Fifth?  Oh right, must be guilty otherwise why would one has to plead the Fifth?

 Now that Nancy Pelosi has left Taiwan, here is some of my takes on the subject.

I still don't know why she decided to go after being warned by the military and Biden that this was a very bad idea.  You don't become a leader in the U.S. government without being pragmatic.  Certainly human rights issue is not consider a pragmatic part of our foreign policy.  Witness Biden kowtowing to the Saudis.  Even if she is really concerned about human rights, going to Taiwan is not going to help the democracy of the Taiwanese people.

Some people say that she is going to distract the problems of her husband and that they have investments in semiconductors which is dominated by Taiwan's TSMC.  I don't think her trip is helping in regarding to both.  Certainly if it provokes China, the semiconductor business throughout the world will be affected.  Prices may go up initially but if war breaks out TSMC will be destroyed and the whole industry will be decimated, as will all of tech sectors because the reliance on chips in the world.

I do think that like all politicians in the U.S., she is beholden to the military industrial complex.  Just tension from the possibility of war is enough to help the industry earn more profit.  So there is call in both sides of the aisle to support Taiwan like Ukraine.  No regard for the fact that by pushing Putin into war, Ukraine will be destroyed even if the war is a stalemate.  Same thing will happen to Taiwan.  No American troops will go into Taiwan if war breaks out.  Taiwanese and Chinese people will die.  But that is not the concern of American hawks and their industry benefactors.

Propaganda is already all over Western media.  CNN had a retired admiral who said that 70% of Taiwanese want independence.  True fact is that only 10% want independence now.  Overwhelming majority want the status quo.  I can guaranteed practically nobody in Taiwan want to fight a war to gain independence.  Certainly not those who are eligible to be drafted into the military.

Also propaganda is that Pelosi can go anywhere she wants.  Taiwan is a separate country.  Newt Gringrich went to Taiwan as Speaker 25 years ago.  But Taiwan is not a separate country.  This fact is recognized by 180 countries, including the U.S.  It would be like the third ranking Chinese leader go to Texas and meet with the people who want to secede from the U.S.  Newt was member of the opposing party to then President Clinton.  So his visit is not considered an official position of the U.S. government.  Coming after the Biden gaffe that the U.S. will protect Taiwan from attack, you can see that this visit is a provocation to China and goes against the Shanghai Communique.

So what is the response from China.  It would seem that Xi is losing face by doing nothing except military exercises.  I certainly did not believe that China would shoot down the plane or force it to land.  That would start a war.  Xi has to be measured in his response.  If you look at  the plans for the military exercises, they are planned to surround all sides of Taiwan.  It is a demonstration that at any time Taiwan can be blockaded.  As an island, Taiwan depends on lots of imports.  So any blockade would be problematic.  China does not need to invade.  Now, is the U.S. aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan going into the same area during the exercise?  That would be more tension and more danger.  Accidents happen during training and adversaries being close together is making accidents more likely.

Even if Xi loses face because the people in China believe the response is not strong enough, he will get his third term.  Being a one party country, China can look at long term.  Eventually China will catch up to the U.S. and Taiwan will be reunified with the motherland.  This is Xi and others' thinking.  So this will not hurt them too much.  

Pelosi and the Democrats just committed an unforced error.  By telegraphing she is going, she had no choice but to go because the GOP already said that if she does not go, it shows weakness.  But having gone, Trump already accused Pelosi of causing chaos.  Same with Tucker Carlson.  I am sure even those who egged her on to go will not say the trip is stupid and that Biden cannot control his own party.  So even politically, I think it is a loss for Pelosi and the Democrats.

So it was a stupid thing to do and I don't know what Pelosi is thinking.  Nobody wins except for the military industrial complex.  The only good thing is that WWIII did not happen.

 The country of Sri Lanka is in an economic crisis.  I am no economist and I can't explain how the situation got so dire for Sri Lanka.  But after some research, I can say for sure the Western narrative of the China debt trap is too blame is bogus.

The critics of China say that after loaning money to Sri Lanka and building its port and airport, China now owns the port and may eventually turn it into a military base!   But the debt Sri Lanka owed to China for the constructions are very small amount of its total international debt.  In fact the total amount Sri Lanka owes China is only about 10% of its total debt.  Japan is also owed 10%.  Most of the other 80% are owed to banks affiliated with the IMF, World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.  The first two are controlled by the U.S. and Europe.  The ADB is controlled by Japan and the U.S.  So to say that China is using debt to control Sri Lanka is laughable.

The deal that Sri Lanka made with China during the crisis is that 70% of the port will be leased to China for 99 years and 30% to be kept by Sri Lanka.  In exchange China gives Sri Lanka 1.12 billion dollars which was used to service debt to other foreign banks.  Before the port was built, feasibility studies were done by Canadian and Dutch firms.  So it is believed that it can be profitable.  If the Chinese company that takes over now can produce profits, it will get 70% and Sri Lanka gets 30%.  Will it work?  Too early to tell but in 99 years the port will revert to Sri Lanka control.  Sort of like the British deal with Hong Kong.  Except China gives money to get the deal and not use gunboats to force the deal.

So Sri Lanka has not lost its port to China.  Certainly no military base is being built.  If 90% of the debt in owed by someone other than China, why is China being accused of a debt trap.? As I said about the accusation of Chinese debt traps in Africa, if the Western countries are so concern then just give these countries a better deal than China.  These countries are not stupid. They won't take the worse deal.

By the way, I think I wrote this before.  The only high finance guy on Wall Street who was convicted of fraud during the last economic disaster in 2008 was from Sri Lanka.  I found it hard to believe then that he was the only guilty person during the financial meltdown.  Now I find it hard to believe that no Western financial institution has anything to do with the Sri Lanka meltdown.

 Watched the hearings last night because I thought it was the finale and they will give the final conclusion.  Well, this is a few things I learned:

There will be a sequel in September!  With new witnesses and facts.  So stay tuned.

It was almost all Republicans who testified against Trump.  Those people will be attacked.  Some was already last night.  

They should have people like Hannity testify why they advised Trump to stop the riot when it was going on.  They have been silenced since and even accused the Committee as a witch hunt.  They seem to believe it was a disaster when it was happening but no big deal now.  Last night FOX didn't even air the hearing.

Trump told McCarthy that it was Antifa that was rioting, not his supporters.  If that is the case, I would think he would have ordered the military to stop it quickly.  But he let it go on.  McCarthy and Trump got into a swearing contest.  But McCarthy is kissing Trump's butt today.

Trump looked stupid and weak while trying to make videos to address the nation.  I am surprised these tapes were kept.

Pence's Secret Service people were fearing for their lives.  These people were supposedly brave enough to die to save the person they were guarding.  But the texts from Trump's Secret Service details were erased, and looks to be done so after they were asked for.  It is hard to believe that the texts were erased accidentally.  Lots of theories out there.  I believe that some of the agents were either supportive of the rioters or some of them did not want to protect Trump because he is a traitor to the country.  Either case, it shows the danger our democracy is in.

 Haven't written for about three weeks due to vacation and not finding a topic I want to write about.  I decide to write about former prime minister of Japan, Abe, who was assassinated more than a week ago.  I didn't really want to write about him after his death because in the past I have written to a newspaper editorial criticizing him.  I don't want to be critical of someone who was just murdered.  Then someone pointed out to me about the opinion I wrote about Abe and wonder if I am happy he died.  Well, not really because things are not always black and white.

I criticized Abe because as prime minister, he visited the graves of Japanese war criminals.  An American politician wrote an opinion that the Chinese should get over what happened during WWII and that it is the Japanese prime minister's right to visit the graves.  I wrote wondering if that same politicians would write the same thing if Jews were appalled by the Chancellor of Germany visiting the graves of Nazi war criminals?  Add to that, Abe's grandfather was a war criminal but was not prosecuted because the U.S. felt that he was useful as a politician who could run the agenda the Americans wanted for Japan post war.  Sort of like the U.S. helping Nazis escape prosecution if they were useful to America as scientists for example.

But while I did not approve of what Abe did and what his grandfather did even more, Abe was basically a politician who tried to stay in power.  His agenda included a stronger Japanese military.  Maybe he believed it was necessary to counter the rise of China, although Japan is protected by the U.S. anyway.  He most likely called for a stronger military and visited the graves of war criminals to satisfy the far right in Japan.  At one time he actually called for better relations with China but that was probably shot down by the far right.  So yes, things are not all black or white.  So while I don't particularly like Abe, I don't feel any happiness about his assassination.  The world is not safer when political leaders are killed rather than being judged at the ballot box.

 Roe v Wade was overturned today by the Supreme Court.  This was not surprising given that the ruling was leaked several weeks ago.  Still it is a day of infamy in  American democracy.  Look, I am not for abortion but this is about the right of women.  Let's been frank.  If men are the ones who get pregnant, there will be no laws restriction abortion.  Birth controls would have been invented long ago and we would not only have plan B but also plans C, D, and E today.

This overturn of Roe v Wade demonstrate that elections have big consequences.  Trump appointed three of the justices that voted for the overturn.  He will be a hero to the conservatives just for this alone.  Majority of the country want to keep abortion legal.  Yet a guy who got less popular votes than his opponent single handily change the law of the land.  Well, he did have help from Mitch McConnell who helped the GOP steal two of those three justice seats.  So it is imperative that we get out the vote to keep the slim Senate control in November and keep the White House in 2024.  

Even if are able to accomplish that, it maybe years before we can overturn this decision.  On another note, there is gun legislation that looks to be passed.  Still, it will not go as far as the majority of the country want.  So this begs the question:  If majority of the people cannot get what we want by voting, how free are we really?

 It has been fifty years since Watergate which was the first time in my lifetime that there was a constitutional crisis in the U.S.  We were lucky that disaster was avoided fifty years ago.  But can we avoid disaster this time?

Richard Nixon, unlike what he proclaimed, was a crook.  He tried to cheat on an election and then tried to cover it up.  Donald Trump is worse.   He asked the Russians openly to help him win an election.  And when the CIA said that Russia was trying to interfere, he agreed with Putin rather than our own intelligence service.  Nixon at first refused to turn over the tapes but eventually did although with 18 minutes missing.  Trump refused to turn over records and has some records missing.  We still have not seen his taxes yet.  Some of Nixon's cronies went to jail.  Some of Trump's cronies may go to jail.  It is obvious that the scandal went all the way to the presidency in both cases.

Nixon actually won reelection and probably would have won anyway without cheating.  Trump lost fair and square and then promoted conspiracy theories about fraud in the election.  This led to the insurrection which Trump encouraged.  Nixon resigned peacefully and let Gerald Ford become president and healed the nation.  Trump did not care if the mob killed his vice president.  Trump is still at it now, trying to divide the nation.  

Back in 1972, I was glued to the tv after school for the hearings.  I didn't understand what was going on a lot of the time.  But I, like many people in the country, wanted to see the truth come out and make judgment based on facts.  Today, most people don't care to watch because they have their minds made up depending which party they are affiliated with.  Back then we have Walter Cronkite, whom everybody trusted.  Today we have the conservatives and liberal media with their own distinct audiences.

Back then, many Republicans see that Nixon's actions were bad for democracy and the country.  Today. the Republicans, with the exception of a few like Liz Cheney, only want to get power back and could careless about the state of democracy in the country.  Nixon knew that he would be impeached if he did not resign and there was a good chance he would have been convicted and kicked out of office.  Today, regardless what criminal acts Trump did, there was never enough vote to convict him in the Senate.

So that is why I believe that Trump and his followers are much worse for the democracy of this country than Nixon and his supporters were fifty years ago.  And that is also why I am much more worried about the future of our country than I did fifty years ago.

 I thought that the Jan. 6 Committee did a good job of presenting the case last week in the first of the televised hearings.  To have Ivanka Trump agreeing with Bill Barr that the election results were correct and that it was not stolen was big.  But did it change any minds?

The people who believe Donald Trump's lies would not have tuned in.  After all, they would be watching Fox and other conservative news outlets.  If they had believed all those outrageous lies up to now, I don't think anything presented would change their minds.  All the people who believe Trump caused the insurrection obviously would not change their mind.  So it is like preaching to the choir.  Maybe I am being pessimistic, but it seems like we are too divided to even agree when somebody is trying to kill our democracy.  I will continue to pay attention to the hearings but I doubt the opinions of the country will change significantly.

 Peter Zeihan is a China hater who has claimed that due to low birth rates and other factors. China will have half of its current population by 2050!  He also claimed that China will collapse soon and it knows that so it will invade Taiwan soon while it still can.  He also claimed that Taiwan will have nuclear weapons at a moment's notice and will use it to turn back China.  Despite these outrageous claims, he has a lot of followers who believe he is an expert in foreign relations.  Of course, lots of people make outrageous predictions and have followers.  Gordon Chang comes to mind.  But I was shocked that with such unintelligent babble, Zeihan was deemed credible enough for our defense community to be invited to speak at the Eisenhower School of National Security.

The Eisenhower School is part of the Armed Forces education system and is highly regarded in turning out leaders in the military.  Eisenhower himself graduated from this school which had another name in the past.  So I would think the school would be careful in inviting speakers who should be credible.  It is not credible that China will lose 700 million people in population by 2050 unless there will be a war the magnitude of which we have never seen before.  There is no way that demographic extrapolations will come up with this conclusion.  I have never heard anyone else make that prediction.  

Even if China is on a downward spiral, it does not mean it will invade Taiwan.  And while Taiwan has the talent to produce a nuclear weapon, it would be unlikely that it would make even one on a moments notice, let alone multiple warheads.  Zeihan said that Taiwan can destroy Beijing and Shanghai.  Even if that is the case, China still has dozens of cities of over a million people.  

Zeihan's claims become even more ridiculous.  He said that China then will send millions across the strait in fishing boats with the hope of landing enough to overwhelm Taiwan forces.  But he believes that Taiwan and U.S. navies will destroy these boats before they land, killing millions of Chinese and thus the invasion will fail.

It is laughable what he said.  If Taiwan uses nuclear weapons on China, wouldn't China respond in kind with even more nuclear weapons?  Maybe half a dozen would destroy the whole island, so why would they bother sending people across the strait?  In fishing boats, when they have a powerful navy?  Maybe Zeihan doesn't know that China has a navy and hundreds of nuclear weapons.  If that is the case, what makes him an expert?

What bothers me is that our young officers who are learning geopolitics and military strategies are exposed to such clowns.  It is like Trump listening to his cronies instead of real experts and make idiotic decisions that cause a million American lives.  I think we can understand why Fox News keep inviting Gordon Chang and others like him to blast China.  But who in our defense department invited this fool to speak at one of our prestigious military institutions?