Pro Russian groups have taken over government buildings in eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are lined up on the border of eastern Ukraine. What will Russia do next? Will Ukraine fight? What should the U.S. do? I don't know is my answer for the first 2 questions. My answer to the third depends how the Russians and the Ukrainians answer the first two.
My feeling is that Putin himself does not know the answer to the first question. Having aroused nationalism to make himself more popular at home he is painting himself into a corner. Any mistake by the rebels or the Ukrainians can spark a civil war and cause Russia to get involved. Is that what Putin really want? If it is, our answer should be swift. No military forces from us but arms and economic aid to Ukraine that will make Putin's life miserable. It will be his Vietnam and Afghanistan. The Russians helped the Viet Cong against the U.S. and we helped the Mujahideen against the USSR without actually sending troops. We must make it clear to Putin that if Russia invades Ukraine the end result will be like our result in Vietnam and their result in Afghanistan.
Will the Ukraine fight? Well if they don't and is willing to give up the part of the country that is Russian majority, then why should we get involved? But if they want to preserve the integrity of their country then we should help them. This was all instigated by Russia and we cannot have another country helping an ethnic group partition a nation. It would be like Mexico helping Mexican Americans take over California. But it all depends on Ukraine willing to fight long and hard to turn back the Russians by attrition. So answer to question 3 depends on answers to 1 and 2.
Sunday, April 20, 2014
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I don't know what the reasoning is for Putin except to flex some muscle. Maybe it's economic because Russia was going to lose out on selling oil to Ukraine, but I still don't understand how this makes up for it.
ReplyDeleteI am uneasy helping out Ukraine here with troops. You said before that we shouldn't be the World's Police. I would want the UN to come down hard on Russia and then maybe send aid (troops) to Ukraine to help fortify the Crimea border.
As I said before, if a large amount of Ukraine people want to be under Russian leadership, then let them live in Crimea and give Russia access to that area.
-LBOAYM
Well, Putin is not doing this for economic reasons.. Russia can sell oil to anyone and western Europe can't supply Ukraine with any oil. In fact Ukraine want to get oil and natural gas from Russia. Ukraine also owes Russia billions. So to take in Ukraine makes no sense economically. To nationalists like Putin it is a matter of lost pride to see their country's historically influences gradually go away. Romania, Poland, Bulgaria, Latvia etc are allied with the west and Ukraine is the biggest and closest former USSR state. To see western Ukraine got rid of its pro Russia president was just too much for Putin to take. It is like Puerto Rico for us or Tibet and Xinjiang for China. All these are money losing territories for the big countries but they would not give them up because of national pride.
ReplyDeleteCertainly we would not want to send troops. But there is no chance that the UN can do anything since Russia can veto any proposal by the security council. But like I said, Europe and the U.S. can supply Ukraine like the USSR did for Vietnam and make it a miserable fight for the Russians as long as Ukraine is willing to make the sacrifices.
If Ukraine does not want to fight to retain eastern Ukraine then just let the Russians have it. With European and U.S. help, I would bet Ukraine will be successful in the near future while eastern Ukraine and the Crimea will depend on Russian subsidies for years to come, assuming Russia is willing to keep helping them.