It is time for the AAAA, ie, the Angry Asian Accurate Assessment. Usually this is a prediction of the Big Ten football bowl games results. But we have a much more important topic today: the American presidential election. So here we go.
It is obvious there are states that are in the pockets of either the Democrats or the Republicans. So off the bat, Biden has 216 votes in his pocket and Trump has 125. I will also give Biden Minnesota and Nevada even though Trump thinks it is competitive. So that means Biden has 16 more votes and a total of 232 so far. I will give Trump Texas even though Biden camp thinks it can flip it. I don't think so. So Trump gets 38 votes and now has 163.
Florida 29 votes, Trump wins by 1 percentage point,
Georgia 16 vote, Trump wins by 1.5 points
Ohio 18 votes, Trump wins by 2 points
Iowa 6 votes Trump wins by 2 points. So Trump total 232.
Wisconsin 10 votes, Biden wins by 6 points
North Carolina 15 votes, Biden wins 1 point
Pennsylvania, 20 votes, Biden wins by 4 points
Michigan 16 votes, Biden wins by 6 points
Arizona 11 votes, Biden wins by 1.5 point
District in Maine, Biden wins by 3 points
District in Nebraska, Biden wins by 2 points So Biden has a total of 306
What is amazing is that this is exactly total that Trump beat Clinton in 2016: 306-232! Basically, I am predicting that Biden flip the "blue wall" back to the Democratic column and add North Carolina, Arizona and the the two districts. I will also predict that Biden wins the popular vote by 6 points.
I will also predict that the election won't be decided tomorrow. Florida maybe able to finish counting tomorrow and if Biden wins there, it will be all over. But I think Trump will win it and then we have to wait of the blue wall results. Pennsylvania isn't even allowed to start counting early ballots till tomorrow and the urban votes will come in even later than the rural votes. So it is likely that Trump maybe ahead there at end of tomorrow night. If North Carolina and Arizona comes in for Biden, it also will be over but both will be close and unlikely decided tomorrow.
So Trump may declare victory tomorrow night without any neutral sites agreeing. By Wednesday night, I think the tide will turn and Biden will look like the winner. There maybe litigation as Trump had promised. But I believe that results will be decisive enough to prevent the country from getting into chaos. Otherwise we will look like a banana republic.
I will also predict that the Democrats will win the senate. They will lose Alabama but flip Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. That will give them a net gain of 3 which is enough if Biden wins. I also think they will flip Iowa, although that will be very close. They may flip one of the Georgia seats but it is likely that nobody will get 50%, leading to a runoff later. Without a presidential election, the Democrat candidate will be at a disadvantage.
I tend to agree with you on your predictions. I am not sure on Arizona yet, but I think the rest are pretty good guesses. Then again, who knows if the Russians, Iranians or Chinese will interfere! But if you go by some of the polling, then I think you're pretty accurate. If Texas flips, we could be seeing a cultural revolution in America. I never thought it would be this close and who knows. It'll either continue shifting left in future years or there will be a push back to the right.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of Texas, I am a little surprised that Biden's campaign did not reach out to George W to help campaign. I think his family still holds some clout in the state and people would follow his lead. That would have been a difference maker.
I am fairly confident Michigan goes blue. This is mainly based on 2018 voting. I am curious to see how Macomb County votes because it has chosen the last four correctly. To the naked eye, the county has not changed demographically, so I don't see it flipping. A lot of blue collar workers who went against the norm in 2016. I am interested to see if they flip back to blue. The Trump campaign has hit that area hard and I think there is a lot of love for Trump there.
As far as the senate race goes, I'm surprised you didn't mention South Carolina. I've seen polls all over the place on this race. Last night, I heard that it was now a tossup. I guess we will see.
Wishing you and your family peace and happiness!
-LBOAYM
George W. has said he is not endorsing anyone. I don't think Jeb has either. And Jeb may have been helpful in Florida. So I think the Bushes are staying out with the idea that the next generation may need GOP support.
ReplyDeleteI think Graham is still two or three points ahead. So even though I would love to kick him out, I am not optimistic. I thought Montana was in play but I have not seen any polls from there and I don't see any pundits predicting anything on that recently. But I think Montana is a slightly better chance than South Carolina.
Crazy night! I am not going to write about the up and down emotions of last night and this morning as I don't even know where to start. I am going to talk about something that may happen if it ends 270-268 as it seems likely to do. Of course, Trump can win Nevada and Arizona and Biden may still win Georgia and Pennsylvania. But what if it ends with basically one vote difference as it stands now?
ReplyDeleteThere has been dozens of instances where a electoral college voter had gone rogue and did not vote the way he was supposed to. Each party in each state selects a panel of voters who will go to D.C. to vote if their party wins in their state. So it is unlikely that one of the voters will go rogue. But it does happen. It has never made any difference in the election and of course that person will become persona non grata will his party. But this time if one person flips, it becomes 269-269 and we have more chaos. I am not sure what would happen then.
There is also the possibility that a state legislature can throw out the panel and select their own. Obviously, that would be equivalent of a coup and we would have become a banana republic. So I don't think that will happen but it is possible, I believe. I am not a constitutional lawyer so don't quote me on this. But it has been a crazy year, right?
By the way, if there is a 269-269 tie, it goes to the House of Representative to decide on the president and the Senate to decide on the vP. So it is technically possible to have say Trump as president and Harris as VP! If it is a tie in both, Speaker of the House is president, at least temporarily until they figure how to break the ties. President Pelsoi?
Maybe lack of sleep from watching the election has made me crazy and come up with these scenarios. But given the polarization of the country, maybe it is again time to revisit the electoral college and go to the real democratic ides of one man one vote: popular vote decides!
As much as I usually like chaotic situations, I tend to think that Biden will win Pennsylvania and Arizona. Georgia is close but who knows how many votes can Biden squeeze out of there. I can see Nevada flipping back over to Trump and unfortunately we won't know until later tonight. North Carolina still seems like it'll stay red.
ReplyDeleteIf the house chooses the president, why wouldn't it choose Biden?
-LBOAYM
That was just an example. The Congress that decides the election is the Congress that is elected now. But the idiotic thing is that it is not everybody vote but each state gets one vote and obvious the majority Congressmen in that each state will cast the vote. So California has only has much power as Wyoming. Since I think more states have majority Republicans in the House, Trump would win. In the Senate, it is one man, one vote. But since the Democrats did not flip the senate, Harris will not be elected. So all the rules seem stupid and undemocratic.
ReplyDelete