After three days and nights of watching the election playing out, I finally got some decent sleep and exercise over the past couple of days and can now look back at this roller coaster ride. Amazingly, even though my predictions were not as accurate as I would have liked, if things hold as it is now, the finall tally will be 306-232, exactly as I had predicted! Basically, I got wrong on NC and a district in Maine wrong but that was balanced on the opposite wrong call from Georgia. It balanced out!. So now let's review the past 5 days.
November 3rd started well for the Democrats as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania were all going Biden's way. But the jubilation quickly turned into despair as those three states along with Wisconsin and Michigan all seemed to be going Trump's way. The only bright spot was Arizona which may flip to Biden. I stayed up until 1:30 am Pacific time with not much hope. Trump declared victory even as pundits say that mail-in ballots will go toward Biden.
November 4: I woke up at 6 am and checked the tv wearily. Surprisingly, Biden had overtaken Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan. Pennsylvania was still in Trump's column but the margin had decreased from over 700,000 to a little over 200,000. Even though North Carolina didn't look good, Georgia began to look more promising.
November 5: Wisconsin and Michigan are called for Biden. Pennsylvania and Georgia continue to tighten. I feel much better because if Arizona and Nevada remain with Biden, he gets to 270. But Arizona is tightening and so Pennsylvania and Georgia maybe our plan B. A sign that is good is that Trump is threatening lawsuits in states that he is leading. He seems desperate so he must know things are turning against him.
November 6: Biden has taken over the lead in Pennsylvania. Georgia is also closing in. Arizona is tightening up. Nevada looks to be staying with Biden. While this is looking good and I am more relieved, it looks like the so called blue wave is not happening. In fact, the GOP will gain in the House, even though the Democrats will stay in power. The Senate will not flip to the Democrats.
November 7: Finally, Pennsylvania is called for Biden and it is over except for the final margin. It is a great day for America and the world. Trump had not conceded and who knows if he ever will. He wants to litigate all the way to the Supreme Court even though he has not presented any evidence of fraud that changed the election. Biden and Harris make good speeches to try to unite the country. The feeling is that they have a hard road ahead of them.
The first tough task for the new administration is the pandemic. Five straight days of record breaking cases with the last 3 days recording over 120,000 cases. I don't envy Biden and Harris. Without the Senate and the Supreme Court on their side, it will be tough to implement their strategies. Good luck to them.
Good recap. What would be funny would be if a vaccine actually comes out at the end of the year! By the time Biden takes office, it'll be closer to a vaccine come out. So maybe their obstacles won't be so bad. I don't think a mask mandate will work but who knows. I can already see the protests if that happens or if the country shuts down.
ReplyDeleteI think it'll depend on how bad the virus spreads between now and then as well. I can't see that the current administration will do anything about it now that it's heading into a Lame Duck time. Do you think Trump will try to sign a bunch of crazy executive orders between now and January?
-LBOAYM
I think it is smart for Biden to start getting his COVID response team in place now and be ready to go right after Jan. 20. In a way, the situation may not be as bad for him as Obama faced in the economic crisis of 2008. The cases are going to go up with Thanksgiving, Christmas and new year coming up. Not to mention the cold weather and the flu season. So all these will make Trump look worse before he leaves office. Then if the vaccine is ready and Biden's team comes in, it would appear that he is making a rescue for the country. There will be blow backs it he advocates mask mandates and lockdowns. But by Jan. 20, the nation will probably be more ready for more drastic interventions.
ReplyDeleteTrump can do executive orders but those can be repealed by Biden right after inauguration. Trump can do more damage with lots of pardons. Rudy Giuliani comes to mind. But the question is, can he pardon himself? I am not a constitutional scholar so I can't answer that. But it is something to think about. In any case, he can only pardon convicted federal criminals. I don't think he can pardon state convictions. So you may see liberal states go after him if he pardons himself.